By Chris Gaffney, Managing Director, Georgia Tech Supply Chain and Logistics Institute | Supply Chain Advisor | Former Executive at Frito-Lay, AJC International, and Coca-Cola

Introduction

The supply chain labor market has been through one of the most dramatic swings in modern history. During the COVID-19 era disruption, talent shortages were acute, and the pendulum swung decisively toward employees. Companies paid top dollar, offered unprecedented flexibility, and competed fiercely for planners, warehouse leaders, S&OP talent, logistics managers, strategic sourcing leaders, and procurement specialists.

But the pendulum swung back in the opposite direction, from whence it came: in favor of the employers.

The past 18–24 months have seen hiring across supply chain cooling. Many large companies are now signaling they intend to grow revenue without necessarily increasing headcount. At the same time, AI and automation have gotten to the point where employers can get more productivity from existing teams. The result is not necessarily indicative of a recessionary job market but a “Great Hiring Pause”: low hiring, low firing, and a clear tilt of bargaining power back toward employers.

The key question now is whether this moment represents a temporary pause or the new normal. Additionally, what does this mean for both hiring managers and early to mid-career supply chain professionals who want to stay competitive in the workplace?

We’ll explore what this means for all stakeholders as we wrap up the year, looking at how the supply chain job market evolved in 2025 and what we expect to see in 2026.

The Pendulum has Swung from Employee Power to Employer Advantage

If you had as little as 5 years of supply chain experience in late 2020–2022, you may have found yourself with competing job offers. Compensation packages offered were lucrative and filled with relocation fees or even 100% remote job offers.

Without a doubt, this shaped the next 2–3 years of the supply chain labor force. Office space sat empty. Employees moved out of the city into the suburbs. Work-life balance improved for everyone. Employers fretted over rents and mortgages on office space and whether their highly compensated employees were actually working. Threats of a pending recession loomed but never materialized. (fingers crossed, knock on wood). Employers ran a bit lean but then found themselves needing more people to keep up with demand.

In early 2025, we wrote about this swing and the influence AI and automation had on supply chain hiring. Companies seemed to be focusing more on how they could accelerate the performance of existing teams while navigating new cost influences and demand swings. Anxiety about the economy amid never-before-seen tariff whims made it increasingly difficult for employers to plan reliable growth strategies for 2026.

And now here we are. The prevailing mindset as we close out a volatile 2025, where AI and tariffs took center stage, is for growth without as much hiring. So what does that mean for 2026 for employers and employees, or aspiring employees?

Growth Without Hiring: Why Companies are Staying Lean Across Supply Chain and Logistics

Executives are treating hiring as a last resort and not a first resort. JP Morgan Chase’s CFO reportedly said the firm has a “strong bias” against reflexively hiring new people. Walmart, Inc. has signaled plans to grow revenue without increasing employee numbers, instead relying more on automation/AI and efficiency improvements.

As mentioned above, market indicators have become increasingly unreliable. Recent Black Friday consumer spending data indicate that people are financing their purchases on credit and using buy-now, pay-later plans. This means less cash injected into the economy in the short term, along with increased interest payments for 95% of the purchases made on Black Friday. Retailers rely heavily on consumer spending and demand, which dictate their growth or lack thereof.

Businesses have also decided to engage in what some are calling “The Great Freeze”, which is not to hire but also to not fire—holding steady on headcount until they can get a better feel for what 2026 will offer from a demand and affordability sense. High inflation affects everyone, which is why many employers are riding it out for a while.

The Risks of Going Too Lean: Burnout, Fragility, and a Shrinking Talent Pipeline

For supply chain organizations, running lean means pressure to improve throughput, reduce waste, and automate more tasks. While the rapid emergence of AI and automation has greatly improved efficiencies, you still need people to understand the best use cases for all of these tools. They can certainly be enhancements, but will backfire if they are seen to be wholesale replacements for full-time employees. This backlash is being felt and mentioned a lot more consistently. AI shouldn’t replace humans, but rather, make them superhuman.

Firms may invest in upskilling existing staff rather than hiring large numbers of junior or mid-level staff. This could help manage costs in a turbulent economy. This is a tricky game, though. Keeping headcount flat while demands increase can lead to burnout, skill gaps, or degraded service if not managed carefully. Productivity gains might be possible, but at what cost? Change management, culture shift, lack of future talent pipeline, and succession planning can place your supply chain at great risk. Think about it: What will you do about career progression, worker loyalty, and organizational capability in 5–10 years? Yes, AI and automation are force multipliers, but not force replacers.

The people who succeed are those who take a measured approach to talent decisions. It is a refrain that has been emphasized for years. Overly lean operations become fragile, just as banking talent balloons your costs. The goal is to strike a balance between the two.

Will the Pendulum Swing Again?

The short answer: not anytime soon. Today’s flat hiring environment is not just a reaction to inflation or a temporary post-COVID correction or regression to the mean. It is influenced by other structural forces like AI maturity, demographic shifts (including the aging of the workforce), productivity pressure, and a corporate mindset increasingly comfortable with “growth without headcount.”

So what now? Employees should pay attention to these moves and make themselves more valuable by staying proactive. Do not wait for a chance to improve your position. Seek it out.

Find collaborative opportunities with your peers outside of your specific silo. Cross-functional literacy takes center stage to increase one’s value. There has been career acceleration among mid-level supply chain professionals who can work across the organization and become proficient in a multitude of functions. Increase your functional knowledge base and increase your organizational value at the same time.

This is not the time to be complacent or average. Employers still need people with elite soft skills such as leadership, personnel management, communication, and initiative. Visible contributions are essential and will separate those who thrive from those who are content to endure.

There is also hope on the horizon. An elite supply chain institution recently reported that more than 85% of their spring graduates received high-level roles. Another hopeful metric is the rise in offers coming to every supply chain graduate. These numbers are all trending up, which means that the supply chain is strong and in need of a robust talent pipeline.

Employees must demonstrate they can become experienced—if not fluent—with AI tools that make individuals more productive. Use them to lift your value. Differentiation is the name of the game in a field where the top 10–15 percent of talent still commands a premium.

This was explored further in an article written for Georgia Tech this summer. AI is not the end, it is the beginning:

I firmly believe professionals—especially early in their careers—should spend 3 to 5 years in front-line roles. No AI tool can replicate the kind of intuition you build by seeing how things work, where they break, and how people respond in real time. That foundation lasts an entire career.

There will always be a place where the human edge is necessary. The goal is to find where you fit and how you can use AI to your advantage while honing and refining your soft skills. Do not be afraid to make mistakes, either. It is one of the best ways to learn.

Conclusion: Planning for Stability in an Unstable Market

The supply chain talent pendulum has clearly swung back toward employers, and the forces keeping it there are unlikely to fade any time soon. AI maturity, demographic stagnation, post-COVID overcorrections, and a corporate appetite for “growth without hiring” all point to a labor market that may remain employer-favored through 2027 or 2028. But the story does not end there. The pendulum can shift again, and it will if several conditions align: steady consumer demand, renewed business investment, lower interest rates, stable inflation, and a labor market that stays tight enough to force companies to compete for talent rather than squeeze more productivity out of smaller teams.

For employees, waiting for that moment is a recipe for disaster and is not a strategy for success. This is the time to skill up, stand out, and become visibly indispensable. Become more proficient with AI tools, expand your cross-functional range, and build the soft skills that technology cannot replace. Your competition now becomes yourself. There is no better time to be a “self-starter” than now.

For employers, running lean perpetually will not provide a bulletproof bottom line. There is risk to succession planning and employee morale through burnout and stagnation. Continue strategically building internal pipelines. The job market has plenty of talent at a premium right now, so find people who can help you maintain operations and grow into more senior roles as the economy rebounds. Workforce resilience cannot be built overnight, and organizations that fail to adequately invest now will struggle later.

“Steady-Eddie” remains the preferred path. Do not overhire or overfire. Aim for a sweet spot that maintains growth, protects margins, and creates a small cushion of resilience for the labor pool. The companies that invest smartly and the employees who stay adaptable, proactive, and highly visible have the chance to define the next era of supply chain leadership, no matter where the pendulum lands.

Call to Action: What This Means for You—and What to Do Next

If these dynamics feel familiar—or unsettling—you are not alone. Moments like this are precisely when intentional investment in skills, talent pipelines, and professional networks matters most.

For students and early-career professionals

This is the time to differentiate, not wait. Employers are hiring selectively, and they are looking for candidates who combine foundational supply chain experience with strong communication, cross-functional literacy, and practical fluency with analytics and AI-enabled tools. Georgia Tech’s Supply Chain and Logistics Institute (SCL) offers professional education courses designed to build exactly these capabilities—grounded in real-world application, not theory alone.

For working professionals

If you are navigating growth-without-hiring realities, reskilling and upskilling are no longer optional. SCL programs help professionals sharpen decision-making, leadership, and applied technical skills that increase both individual and organizational resilience—especially in environments where headcount is constrained but expectations are rising.

For hiring managers and employers

Even in a cautious hiring market, the competition for top-tier supply chain talent has not disappeared—it has become more targeted. Engaging early with Georgia Tech SCL allows you to connect with high-caliber students, support a durable talent pipeline, and partner on developing skills that align with where supply chains are headed, not where they have been.

Readers are also encouraged to explore SCM-focused podcasts and practitioner conversations—including leadership, career-path, and “day-in-the-life” perspectives—that help translate these labor market shifts into practical guidance. These voices complement formal education by offering lived experience and real-world context during periods of uncertainty.

For those wondering how to navigate what comes next, staying connected with Georgia Tech SCL can be valuable. In a January 2026 webinar, the team will preview an emerging trend expected to materially shape supply chain roles, workforce expectations, and talent strategies over the next 3–5 years—particularly at the intersection of AI enablement, front-line experience, and leadership readiness.

This moment favors those who engage early, build capability deliberately, and stay connected to credible institutions shaping the future of supply chain practice.

This content was developed in collaboration with SCM Talent Group, a supply chain recruiting and executive search firm.

Resources

• Associated Press — “US hiring stalls with employers reluctant to expand...” (reports just ~22,000 jobs in a month). AP News
• CBS News — Supporting story on same 22,000-job report / labor-market cooldown. CBS News
• PBS NewsHour — Analysis of U.S. hiring stall and its implications. PBS
• Business Insider — Coverage of weak August 2025 jobs report and growing caution in labor markets. Business Insider
• The Wall Street Journal — “Jobs Report Shows Hiring Slowed in August 2025” (subscription-gated). The Wall Street Journal
• Bloomberg — Reporting that job openings and hiring have decoupled despite rising corporate capital expenditures; signals firms are investing without matching headcount growth. Bloomberg
• Walmart / Newsweek — Recent article on Walmart celebrating automation and signaling flat headcount even as business grows. Newsweek