Across the nation, millions will look for meaningful ways to celebrate their special someone on Valentine’s Day, whether through flowers, candy, greeting cards, or a dinner out. Behind each thoughtful gesture, however, lies a complex challenge: allocating resources and coordinating supply chains to ensure everyone can give and receive love in the ways they value most.

Businesses depend on strong supply chain expertise to keep Valentine’s Day running smoothly. While overall demand mirrors other holiday periods, certain products like flowers, candy, and cards see sharp spikes, and these peaks can ripple across other goods and services as well.

Candy
Candy makers are well-versed in navigating peak sales periods throughout the year, but holidays like Valentine’s Day bring a distinct set of challenges. Beyond meeting higher demand, manufacturers must redesign packaging and, in some cases, reshape products (think heart-shaped candies and festive wrapping) to capture the spirit of the season and stand out on store shelves.

To make this transition seamless, many large companies treat the holiday as an innovation cycle, assigning dedicated teams to plan months in advance. These teams develop new packaging designs and product variations while ensuring changes integrate smoothly into existing production schedules and supply chain operations.

“For Reese’s to make a tree versus a bunny versus a heart. They figured that out. That's kind of in the final element of actually bringing, in their case, the peanut butter and the chocolate together. So it's going to run in an existing production facility. It may even run on an existing production line with some very unique change parts that would be unique for that physical product,” explained Chris Gaffney, managing director of Supply Chain and Logistics Institute and academic program director in Georgia Tech Professional Education.

Flowers
Demand for flowers operates differently than demand for products like candy. While there are predictable peaks around holidays such as Valentine’s Day, demand also rises and falls throughout the year. Growers must determine weeks in advance how many flowers to plant, carefully balancing the risk of overproduction with the need to meet customer demand at precisely the right moment.

To make these decisions, growers invest significant resources in building accurate and reliable forecasts. Historical sales data offers a logical starting point, providing insight into seasonal patterns and prior performance. But past demand can only serve as a guide. Economic conditions, consumer confidence, and shifting purchasing behaviors all influence how many flowers customers ultimately buy.

Forecasting is becoming increasingly complex. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank has shown that consumers’ perceptions of the economy are growing more disconnected from their actual household financial situations. That misalignment makes traditional indicators less dependable. As a result, forecasters are turning to new metrics and advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, to analyze massive volumes of data and uncover hidden patterns.

“This is where we get into machine learning. You have people who will get 10,000 different data streams, cash register spending, other things that might be correlating events and try to sit here and say, can I create a machine learning model that predicts [demand] better?” Gaffney said.

Restaurants
The restaurant industry thrives on filling every available seat, and there’s rarely much extra capacity to spare. This year, restaurants may get a small reprieve, as Valentine’s Day falls on a weekend. Diners are more likely to spread out their visits throughout the day, rather than all arriving at once after work, easing the typical rush and helping restaurants manage demand more smoothly.

Caregivers
Perhaps even more lucrative, Gaffney explained, is the babysitting market. With a limited number of sitters available, rates can soar on Valentine’s Day, and anyone willing and able to work can expect to earn significantly more than usual.

“The really interesting hedging might be the babysitter; responsible kids older than 18 who could stay out late or a high school kid who can stay out until 1:00 in the morning. A very reliable babysitter might make a lot of money on a day and might have to be booked in advance for Valentine's Day,” Gaffney said.