As activity on the Moon accelerates, a central challenge is emerging: how to enable safe and efficient operations without locking in inequitable access to scarce and high-value resources. Proposed mechanisms such as “safety zones” are intended to prevent harmful interference between missions while also serving multiple purposes, including the protection of scientific research areas, preservation of unique or sensitive environments, coordination of infrastructure, and mitigation of operational risks. However, their real-world implications remain poorly understood. This talk examines how different approaches to defining and implementing safety zones—varying in size, geometry, and duration—shape outcomes on the lunar surface, drawing on simulation-based research that models multi-actor competition for limited resources. The results highlight a core tension: policies designed to ensure safety and protect scientific activity can unintentionally create exclusion, inefficiency, and long-term inequities, particularly by reinforcing first-mover advantages. The discussion also introduces emerging methods for evaluating these dynamics through scenario design and tabletop exercises, which allow stakeholders to explore the consequences of governance choices in advance, with the aim of informing more coordinated, efficient, and equitable approaches to lunar development.

*Refreshments: 10:30 AM - 11:00 AM (ES&T L1175)