Student Name: Neel Puri

Advisor: Dr. Dimitri Mavris

Milestone: PhD Thesis Proposal

Degree Program: Aerospace Engineering

Title: A Quantitative Policymaking Methodology for Forecasting Emergent Behaviors and Industry Compliance in LEO

Abstract: The space domain is undergoing the most substantial growth in decades. As commercial interest and investment drive this change, the interplay between constituent systems gives rise to a variety of negative emergent behaviors. Beyond the commonly known issue of orbital debris, negative astronomical, climate, and even ecological effects of space activity have been discovered. Due to their nascency, however, existing policies are insufficient to address these economic externalities. A significant impediment to the development of externality-correcting policies is the belief that new policies could hamper growth of the space industry, a key sector for both national security and pride. This thesis presents a methodology for developing externality-correcting policies in light of this fear by characterizing economic and emergent effects together. Current quantitative methods informing policy rely on sound yet untested economic assumptions. Most efforts represent the economic rationale that drive emergence, namely compliance, exogenously or not at all; while models with endogenous representations rely on economic equilibrium/aggregate assumptions that are unproven for the rapidly evolving space industry. This work proposes experiments to address both issues through the development of an agent-based model of the space industry with consideration for both micro- and macroeconomic development. This model can then be utilized to gauge industry response to new policies by ways of profit and risk-driven decision rules. Integrating this with existing models for the LEO space environment allows for concurrent evaluation of both economic and emergent effects of the space domain. The cumulative methodology proposed in this work could serve as a powerful quantitative tool for policymakers looking to ease economic concerns while still aiming to address harmful effects. 

Date and time: 2026-03-25, 10am

Location: CoVE Conference Room

Committee:
Dr. Dimitri Mavris (advisor), School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Mariel Borowitz, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs
Dr. Jenna Jordan, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs
Dr. Thomas Gonzalez Roberts, School of Aerospace Engineering and School of International Affairs
Dr. Evan Harrison, School of Aerospace Engineering
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