Student Name: Bhargavi V. Thakar

Advisor: Dr. Dimitri Mavris

Milestone: PhD Thesis Proposal

Degree Program: Aerospace Engineering

Title: A Multi-Stakeholder, Uncertainty-Informed Methodology for Early Phase Space Program Planning

Abstract: Space exploration programs require extensive planning right from the early stages of conception through the development and operations phases. The groundwork for these later phases is laid during early planning, often optimistically and despite significant uncertainty regarding mission scope and technical requirements. Early planning often insufficiently considers hurdles due to technical complexities and funding instabilities. Further, the strategic considerations of civil, legislative, and industry stakeholders that are integral to the planning process are not holistically incorporated in the early planning phases. Altogether, this results in scope creep, compounding uncertainties, and decision whiplash throughout space program development, ultimately leading to intertwined cost and schedule (C&S) overruns. Consequently, space program execution deviates significantly from the original plans. Precise and timely execution of national space programs is vital due to their geopolitical significance. This thesis proposes a methodology which simultaneously incorporates the viewpoints and preferences of multiple stakeholders, and the technical, financial, and strategic uncertainties in the space program planning problem to improve current practices of early phase planning. The objective is to help create realistic plans such that a specific, restricted scope can be proposed and executed without significant changes to original C&S projections. To achieve this, the methodology combines decision and game theoretic frameworks, modified multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, and uncertainty propagation methods to simulate the sequential evolution of actions and decisions over time. A use case consisting of NASA and Congress as the stakeholders, and programmatic elements within NASA's Artemis program will guide the development of the methodology. The demonstration of the methodology will be done through a tabletop exercise which will allow decision-makers to input their preferences on programmatic elements for a program and see how different decision pathways evolve. The framework will help determine the programmatic elements that need to be prioritized based on a compromising solution for each stakeholder. This research proposes a novel methodology that can be used at high levels of decision-making to support program development by combining the subjective and objective aspects of planning to make informed decisions on programmatic alternatives. While this thesis focuses on an application to space programs, the developed methodology could be used to systematically approach any similar decision problem with multiple stakeholders and wide-ranging uncertainties.

Date and time: 2025-12-05, 10:00 am

Location: Weber II Collaborative Design Environment (CoDE)

Committee:
Dr. Dimitri Mavris (advisor), School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Mariel Borowitz, School of International Affairs
Dr. Thomas González Roberts, School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Tristan Sarton du Jonchay, School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Alfred Nash, NASA JPL
, 

Student Name: Bhargavi V. Thakar

Advisor: Dr. Dimitri Mavris

Milestone: PhD Thesis Proposal

Degree Program: Aerospace Engineering

Title: A Multi-Stakeholder, Uncertainty-Informed Methodology for Early Phase Space Program Planning

Abstract: Space exploration programs require extensive planning right from the early stages of conception through the development and operations phases. The groundwork for these later phases is laid during early planning, often optimistically and despite significant uncertainty regarding mission scope and technical requirements. Early planning often insufficiently considers hurdles due to technical complexities and funding instabilities. Further, the strategic considerations of civil, legislative, and industry stakeholders that are integral to the planning process are not holistically incorporated in the early planning phases. Altogether, this results in scope creep, compounding uncertainties, and decision whiplash throughout space program development, ultimately leading to intertwined cost and schedule (C&S) overruns. Consequently, space program execution deviates significantly from the original plans. Precise and timely execution of national space programs is vital due to their geopolitical significance. This thesis proposes a methodology which simultaneously incorporates the viewpoints and preferences of multiple stakeholders, and the technical, financial, and strategic uncertainties in the space program planning problem to improve current practices of early phase planning. The objective is to help create realistic plans such that a specific, restricted scope can be proposed and executed without significant changes to original C&S projections. To achieve this, the methodology combines decision and game theoretic frameworks, modified multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, and uncertainty propagation methods to simulate the sequential evolution of actions and decisions over time. A use case consisting of NASA and Congress as the stakeholders, and programmatic elements within NASA's Artemis program will guide the development of the methodology. The demonstration of the methodology will be done through a tabletop exercise which will allow decision-makers to input their preferences on programmatic elements for a program and see how different decision pathways evolve. The framework will help determine the programmatic elements that need to be prioritized based on a compromising solution for each stakeholder. This research proposes a novel methodology that can be used at high levels of decision-making to support program development by combining the subjective and objective aspects of planning to make informed decisions on programmatic alternatives. While this thesis focuses on an application to space programs, the developed methodology could be used to systematically approach any similar decision problem with multiple stakeholders and wide-ranging uncertainties.

Date and time: 2025-12-05, 10:00 am

Location: Weber II Collaborative Design Environment (CoDE)

Committee:
Dr. Dimitri Mavris (advisor), School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Mariel Borowitz, School of International Affairs
Dr. Thomas González Roberts, School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Tristan Sarton du Jonchay, School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Alfred Nash, NASA JPL
,