Ph.D. Thesis Defense Announcement

ANTICIPATORY RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE UNDER CYBER AND NATURAL HAZARDS

By PAOLA VARGAS

Advisor:

DR. IRIS TIEN

Committee Members:  DR. SAMUEL COOGAN (ECE), DR. HERMANN FRITZ (CEE), DR. J. DAVID FROST (CEE), DR. LEE LERNER (GTRI)

Date and Time:  November, 18, 2025.  9am EST

Location: Van Leer C456/ Virtual Link

Critical infrastructure (CI) faces an ever-evolving threat landscape. Anticipating emerging risks and preparing for them can minimize the safety and efficiency impacts of attacks or disruptions on the people that depend on this critical infrastructure. This thesis presents new methods to conduct anticipatory risk assessments for CI under cyber and natural hazards. Hazards investigated include the evolving threats brought to the transportation, water, power, and oil/gas sectors by 5G-enabled automation and the threats brought to drinking water infrastructure by sea level rise. An assessment of the risk landscape that 5G brings to smart CI sectors reveals an increase in amount of threat vectors available across sectors, giving potential attackers access to CI networks and increasing vulnerabilities to both physical and cyberattacks. Operators must create plans to continue providing essential services in the event of a 5G network outage, and continuously monitor and update security protocols as threats evolve. A methodology to provide detailed quantitative assessment of emerging risks from 5G-enabled technologies for the transportation network is also proposed. Traffic simulations and indicators developed assess theimpacts of a range of cyberattack scenarios on an urban transportation system. Results capture collisions and traffic delays across the system in both automated and non-automated vehicles. As the penetration of connected and automated vehicles during the rollout phase increases, developed methodologies show increases in severity of traffic delays and collisions with a risk mitigation measure for transportation infrastructure proposed to decrease negative impacts in the most severe cyberattack scenario. Finally, a methodology to assess the needs of coastal drinking water networks facing sea level rise-induced population displacement is proposed. The method includes novel integration of sea level rise modeling, climate change-induced population shifts, and infrastructure risk analysis to create an anticipatory risk assessment approach for water distribution infrastructure operations and management for the coming decades. Results reveal how a drinking water network is affected over time with a focus on providing risk mitigation recommendations were possible.