Understanding how tropical cyclones (TCs) will respond to a changing climate is of significant public interest due to their profound socioeconomic impacts. Among the key climate change forcings, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols play dominant yet contrasting roles, with aerosols partly offsetting some of the warming induced by GHGs. However, how these competing influences shape TC frequency remains poorly constrained. While TC intensity is expected to increase with GHG-induced warming, the response of TC frequency remains highly uncertain, with some models projecting an increase and others a decrease. Aerosols, meanwhile, can dampen some of the warming effects of GHGs but remain one of the least understood components of the climate system, largely due to their complex interactions and regionally heterogeneous effects. In this talk, I will present a physically constrained framework that integrates single-forcing climate model experiments with empirically derived TC genesis indices to disentangle the relative impacts of GHGs and aerosols on TC frequency. I will also examine the large-scale climate dynamics underlying these responses, an often overlooked but essential component of the problem. This approach provides an internally consistent methodology for assessing how key climate forcings influence TC frequency, notwithstanding the direction of the projected change, and will highlight the unintended climate consequences of air quality improvements—a tricky trade-off with significant policy implications.

*Refreshments: 10:30 AM - 11:00 AM (Atrium)