Humans’ historical greenhouse gas emissions have caused the climate crisis the world is in today. But it’s the amount emitted now and in coming years that will determine whether humanity can avert catastrophic climate changes. That’s the main finding of a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday, which says that even if the world cut emissions to zero today, there would still be a 42% chance of hitting 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels within a decade. That probability rises to 66% if the world waits until 2029 to reach zero emissions. “With respect to our ability to predict the timing and magnitude of peak warming, this paper shows that the devil is in the detail,” says Kim Cobb, Georgia Power Chair and ADVANCE Professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. “That may seem fairly ‘in the weeds’, but when you’re talking about a few tenths of a degree Celsius, that’s a big deal in terms of global warming levels.” Cobb, also director of Georgia Tech's Global Change Program, was not involved in the study.
