Thayna da Silva Oliveira
(Advisor: Prof. Dimitri Mavris)

will defend a master’s thesis entitled,

A Methodology for Demand Assessment and Integrated Schedule Design and Fleet Assignment applied to Thin-Haul Scheduled Operations

On

Monday, May 17th at 10:00 a.m. EDT
https://bluejeans.com/687687270

Abstract

The thin-haul market is characterized by short-range routes with low demand, occasionally served by commuter airlines. Historically, commuter operators have not been able to maintain profitable operations in this market, migrating to longer and more profitable routes throughout the years. As a result, many small cities have lost their air service and airports have become underutilized. Aiming to change this scenario, many studies have focused on the development of vehicle technologies to promote thin-haul scheduled operations and the assessment of potential demand. This thesis investigates thin-haul operations from the airline point of view, aiming to understand how flight operations optimization can aid commuter operators to improve profitability and consequently restore the air service to small communities. Despite the low individual demand of each thin-haul route, an opportunity for profitability may exist if the origin-destination pairs are effectively served considering the right schedule decisions, i.e., when and where to fly, as well as the assignment of the aircraft with the right capacity to the right flight leg. These problems are part of the schedule planning process and are known in the literature as schedule design and fleet assignment (SD&FA). However, the lack of historical data and baseline schedule for thin-haul operations imposes challenges for demand estimation and SD&FA applications. Therefore, the contribution of this thesis is in the development of a methodology for demand assessment and integrated SD&FA applied to thin-haul operations, focusing on overcoming these challenges. This is achieved by investigating the demand based on the competition with alternative modes of transport and by coupling the current SD&FA techniques with the concept of hourly demand distribution. The methodology is implemented in a framework that allows different operational scenarios to be evaluated based on the operations metrics of effectiveness, which includes the airline profit, the potential thin-haul demand served, and the passengers’ time savings. Such framework enables stakeholders to understand the key elements that lead to profitable thin-haul operations, the extent to which the air service can be expanded, and the potential benefits for passengers and cities. Results demonstrate that more efficient operations can be achieved if airlines adopt a mix of point-to-point and connecting flights, and that the hub location can significantly impact the effectiveness of the operations.

Committee

• Prof. Dimitri Mavris – School of Aerospace Engineering (advisor)
• Dr. Bradford Robertson – School of Aerospace Engineering
• Dr. Jens Pfaender – School of Aerospace Engineering
• Dr. Mohammed Hassan – School of Aerospace Engineering