An unprecedented Ebola epidemic has taken a deadly toll in West Africa, spurring an international response on the ground – a response influenced, in part, by epidemiological models that predicted a frightening rise in cases, without large-scale changes in behavior and intervention.

Epidemic models can play an invaluable role in curbing Ebola outbreaks, but they require careful examination, which was exactly the point of a workshop called “Modeling the Spread and Control of Ebola in West Africa,” January 22-23, at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

“There is a growing coalition of modelers working at different scales – spanning the evolution of the virus to the localized transmission of disease in communities – who can contribute to the response effort on the ground,” says Joshua Weitz, associate professor in Georgia Tech’s School of Biology, who chaired the workshop organizing committee.

Mathematical models and modelers can help to inform decisions on which tools and interventions to use when responding to a devastating and complex outbreak, like the ongoing Ebola epidemic in West Africa. The meeting (at the Historic Academy of Medicine at Georgia Tech) reached capacity quickly and featured an all-star lineup of scientists, public health experts, and policy makers from different universities, industry, media and governmental institutions (including the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, the Executive Office of the President, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

Participants focused on four central themes: predicting and interpreting initial outbreak dynamics, planning and evaluating interventions, real-time monitoring and surveillance, and modeling as a tool for communication.

“A central challenge is to link models with decision tools and policy,” says Weitz, a member of the Parker H. Petit Institute for Bioengineering and Bioscience, where his research areas include systems biology and molecular evolution. The workshop, he said, provided, "an opportunity to examine the scientific and logistical challenges raised by Ebola and the communication challenges arising from explaining models and their interpretation to the public, public health professionals and policy-makers.”

Workshop in Brief

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