Transportation Speaker: Travel Modeling as Risky Business

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Travel demand forecasting models are used to inform a wide variety of transportation policy and investment decisions. Modelers have tended to focus on statistical measures of model validity to prove their utility and applicability for such analyses. Over the past year we've interviewed two dozen high-level elected officials, transportation agency heads, and investment bankers to learn how they assess the credibility and utility of travel forecasts. The results were suprising, and suggest the need to rethink how we build, use, and interpret these forecasts. Rick's talk will highlight many of these key findings and discuss emerging trends in modeling.

Rick is a principal professional associate at Parsons Brinckerhoff, and one of the leaders of their travel modeling and simulation practice. He has 28 years of travel modeling experience, much of it in the realms of freight, statewide, and integrated land use-transportation modeling. He has recently been involved with several contested or litigated forecasts involving public-private financing, which has caused him to rethink a number of things. Rick is also a senior fellow at the University of Melbourne, where he completed his doctorate degree, and is active in the Transportation Research Board and the Association for European Transport.

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  • Workflow Status: Published
  • Created By: Kyle James
  • Created: 02/06/2014
  • Modified By: Fletcher Moore
  • Modified: 04/13/2017