Marc Muehlberg
(Advisor: Prof. Dimitri Mavris)

will propose a doctoral thesis entitled,

Decomposition and Recomposition Methodology for Rapid Infusion of Operational Scenarios into Modelling and Simulation

On

Tuesday, January 12 at 2:00 p.m.
 BlueJeans   https://bluejeans.com/196871582

Abstract

As military operating environments and potential global threats rapidly evolve, military planning processes required to maintain international security and national defense increase in complexity and involve unavoidable uncertainties. The challenges in the field are diverse, including dealing with reemergence of long-term, strategic competition over destabilizing effects of rogue regimes, and the asymmetric non-state actors’ threats such as terrorism and international crime. The military forces are expected to handle increased multi-role, multi-mission demands because of the interconnected character of these threats.

The objective of this thesis is to discuss enhancing system-of-systems analysis capabilities by considering diverse operational requirements and operational ways in parameterized fashion within Capabilities Based Assessments. These assessments require an open-ended exploratory approach of means and ways, situated in the early stages of planning and acquisition processes. Low-fidelity modelling and simulations are used to consider a high quantity of feasible alternatives in a timely manner.

A methodology is proposed to (1) provide for a formalized process for the consideration and infusion of operational scenarios, (2) determine suitable low-fidelity modelling and simulations approaches, and (3) properly constrain the design space prior to computational analysis. Operational scenarios are a representative set of statements and conditions that address a defined problem and include testable metrics to analyze performance and effectiveness. The scenario formalization uses an adjusted elementary definition approach to decompose, define, and recompose operational scenarios to create standardized architectures, allowing their rapid infusion into environments, and to enable the consideration of diverse operational requirements in a conjoint approach overall. The analysis environment development identifies and tests modelling techniques to ensure that the complexities of operational behavior are sufficiently represented. The design space constraining formalizes the collection of alternative approaches within different materiel and non-materiel dimensions and analyzes their relationship prior to the creation of combinatorial test cases.

Committee

• Prof. Dimitri Mavris – School of Aerospace Engineering (advisor)
• Dr. Alicia Sudol – Research Engineer, School of Aerospace Engineering
• Dr. Jenna Jordan – Associate Professor, School of International Affairs