{"692215":{"#nid":"692215","#data":{"type":"news","title":"As Oil Profits Skyrocket, Calls for Windfall Taxes\u00a0Rise","body":[{"value":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022theconversation-article-body\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhen Chevron reported its \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/chevron-records-highest-quarterly-profit-six-years-beating-analyst-estimates-2026-07-31\/\u0022\u003Ehighest quarterly profit in six years\u003C\/a\u003E on July 31, 2026, it was just one detail in a larger picture: Analyst firm Wood Mackenzie estimates the global oil and gas industry is on course for a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.woodmac.com\/press-releases\/wood-mackenzie-mid-year-outlook-oil-and-gas-industry-cash-rich-but-capital-cautious-as-nearly-half-a-trillion-dollar-windfall-fails-to-trigger-a-spending-surge\/\u0022\u003Ecash windfall of US$495 billion in 2026\u003C\/a\u003E. That\u2019s profit above and beyond what the industry expected before the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThree separate bills seeking to tax those profits are now in Congress, and President Donald Trump has even said the oil companies are \u201c\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/aug\/07\/trump-windfall-tax-big-oil-iran-war\u0022\u003Emaking too much money\u003C\/a\u003E.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAs an \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=p4hJf78AAAAJ\u0026amp;hl=en\u0026amp;oi=ao\u0022\u003Eapplied microeconomist\u003C\/a\u003E, I am often asked how taxes affect economic activity. Economists have long held a more nuanced view of windfall taxes than either side of the current debate suggests. Advocates often make overly optimistic revenue projections, and opponents often overstate how much such a tax might discourage investment. A 1980s U.S. windfall-tax experiment is instructive on both counts.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigure class=\u0022align-center zoomable\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;rect=0%2C448%2C8667%2C4875\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=1000\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 aria-label=\u0022Zoomable image\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\u0022A person pumps gas into a car.\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;rect=0%2C448%2C8667%2C4875\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 srcset=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=399\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=399\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=399\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=502\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=502\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753115\/original\/file-20260810-72-pzsr9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=502\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 2262w\u0022 sizes=\u0022(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003EAs customers pay more, oil giants are raking in the cash.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003Ca class=\u0022source\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/person-pumps-gas-at-a-chevron-gas-station-on-august-07-2026-news-photo\/2289514532\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003EBrandon Bell\/Getty Images\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EOther Nations Have This Type of Tax\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn the U.K., a windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas \u2013 layered on top of existing levies to produce a combined rate of 78% on profits \u2013 is on course to generate an \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gbnews.com\/money\/rachel-reeves-windfall-energy-tax\u0022\u003Eestimated 8 billion pounds in 2026\u003C\/a\u003E (about $10.8 billion), roughly \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/statistics\/government-revenues-from-uk-oil-and-gas-production--2\/government-revenues-from-oil-and-gas-production-september-2025\u0022\u003Edouble its 2024\u201325 revenue\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA similar European Union-wide tax imposed as a one-time measure after Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/data\/all\/eu\/windfall-profits-taxes-europe\/\u0022\u003Eraised 26.15 billion euros\u003C\/a\u003E ($30 billion). Five EU countries are now \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/austria-germany-italy-portugal-spain-tax-energy-companies-benefit-iran-war\/\u0022\u003Ecalling for a second one\u003C\/a\u003E in response to the Iran war.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EHow to Tax a Windfall\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMany taxes are deliberately designed to \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.npr.org\/transcripts\/1255755376\u0022\u003Echange behavior\u003C\/a\u003E. But a windfall tax is different: It goes after money that results from a company making the same production decision it was already planning to make before prices rose. The oil was going to be pumped regardless; the war just made each barrel worth more.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA textbook windfall tax would not fall on all profits, but only on the amount exceeding a baseline level. Australia\u2019s \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.ato.gov.au\/businesses-and-organisations\/gst-excise-and-indirect-taxes\/petroleum-resource-rent-tax\u0022\u003EPetroleum Resource Rent Tax\u003C\/a\u003E and Norway\u2019s \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.norskpetroleum.no\/en\/economy\/petroleum-tax\/\u0022\u003Especial petroleum tax\u003C\/a\u003E are the closest working examples. Under those, companies deduct all costs \u2014 including exploration and investment \u2013 plus a normal rate of return, before any windfall tax is owed.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn the U.S., the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/bill\/96th-congress\/house-bill\/3919\u0022\u003ECrude Oil Windfall Profit Tax\u003C\/a\u003E, enacted in 1980, was projected to raise $393 billion over its planned 10-year life. It raised about $80 billion before being repealed in 1988 \u2013 roughly a fifth of the projection. Prices collapsed after 1986, domestic production was increasingly exempted, and the tax was generating almost nothing by the time it was repealed.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigure class=\u0022align-center zoomable\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=1000\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 aria-label=\u0022Zoomable image\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\u0022A large industrial tower rises out of a gray seascape.\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 srcset=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=400\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=400\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=400\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=503\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=503\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753116\/original\/file-20260810-50-vcyx03.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=503\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 2262w\u0022 sizes=\u0022(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003EThe U.K. heavily taxes revenue from oil and gas wells in the North Sea.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003Ca class=\u0022source\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/february-2025-lower-saxony-emden-view-of-the-drilling-news-photo\/2197513406\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003ELars Penning\/picture alliance via Getty Images\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EWhat Congress is Considering\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe bills currently in Congress are structured very differently from the textbook design \u2013 and from each other.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA proposal by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Rep. Ro Khanna of California, both Democrats would \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/bill\/119th-congress\/senate-bill\/4111\u0022\u003Elevy a 50% excise tax per barrel\u003C\/a\u003E on the difference between the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/commodities\/oil-price\u0022\u003Ecurrent average Brent crude price\u003C\/a\u003E and the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=66944\u0022\u003E2025 average of $69\u003C\/a\u003E. With a July 2026 average of $84, a company would owe $7.50 per barrel \u2013 regardless of production costs or profitability.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA second bill, the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/sherman.house.gov\/media-center\/press-releases\/congressman-brad-sherman-introduces-legislation-prevent-oil-companies\u0022\u003EIran War Oil Crisis Windfall Profits Tax Act\u003C\/a\u003E by Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman of California, is more aggressive: a 100% tax on the amount by which crude prices exceed $75 per barrel. At the July 2026 average of $84, companies would owe $9 per barrel. That tax would be in effect only until hostilities end and prices fall below that threshold.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBoth are triggered by prices, not by any measure of underlying profit. A third proposal, the \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.finance.senate.gov\/ranking-members-news\/wyden-schumer-bennet-bill-would-increase-tax-on-stock-buybacks-for-oil-and-gas-companies\u0022\u003ETaxing Buybacks from Big Oil Windfalls Act\u003C\/a\u003E by Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden, Chuck Schumer, and Michael Bennet, takes a different approach: raising the excise tax on stock buybacks from 1% to 25% for large oil and gas companies, targeting not the windfall itself but what companies do with it.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigure class=\u0022align-center zoomable\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=1000\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 aria-label=\u0022Zoomable image\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\u0022People in ties and stock-trader jackets stand near multiple electronic monitors.\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 srcset=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=400\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=400\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=400\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=503\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=503\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753119\/original\/file-20260810-50-xw2izn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=503\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 2262w\u0022 sizes=\u0022(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003EOil companies are not using their skyrocketing profits to buy back their stocks.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003Ca class=\u0022source\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/traders-work-on-the-floor-of-the-new-york-stock-exchange-at-news-photo\/2287222043\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003EAngela Weiss\/AFP via Getty Images\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EWhere the Money is Going\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe American Petroleum Institute has argued that proposals like these \u201c\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/kvcr.org\/news\/npr-top-stories\/2026-07-16\/oil-prices-windfall-tax-iran-war\u0022\u003Eerode the certainty needed to make investment\u003C\/a\u003E\u201d decisions. The Tax Foundation has warned that \u201c\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/oped\/oil-gas-tax-windfall-profits\/\u0022\u003Etaxing producers is the opposite of a solution to a supply crisis\u003C\/a\u003E.\u201d Neither side, however, has put a specific dollar figure on how much investment would actually be deterred.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe data tells a different story. According to Wood Mackenzie, the 49 largest oil and gas companies will \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.woodmac.com\/press-releases\/wood-mackenzie-mid-year-outlook-oil-and-gas-industry-cash-rich-but-capital-cautious-as-nearly-half-a-trillion-dollar-windfall-fails-to-trigger-a-spending-surge\/\u0022\u003Epocket about $272 billion\u003C\/a\u003E of the sector\u2019s windfall \u2013 roughly equal to 70% of their combined annual investment budgets. Yet investment spending has barely moved, stock buybacks are on course to fall, and \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.woodmac.com\/press-releases\/wood-mackenzie-mid-year-outlook-oil-and-gas-industry-cash-rich-but-capital-cautious-as-nearly-half-a-trillion-dollar-windfall-fails-to-trigger-a-spending-surge\/\u0022\u003Edividends have stayed flat\u003C\/a\u003E. The cash is simply accumulating on balance sheets.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis is exactly what \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/0304-405X(94)90009-4\u0022\u003Eeconomic research predicts\u003C\/a\u003E: When a windfall doesn\u2019t change a firm\u2019s underlying investment opportunities, managers hold the cash and wait. In 2026, the industry is waiting for clarity on how long the war lasts, whether prices have peaked and whether Congress will pass a windfall tax. The argument that such a tax would prevent important economic activity weakens by the day.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigure class=\u0022align-center zoomable\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=1000\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 aria-label=\u0022Zoomable image\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\u0022A person holds up a sign that says \u0026apos;people over profit.\u0026apos;\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 srcset=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=402\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=402\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=402\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=506\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=506\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/753120\/original\/file-20260810-60-aoni39.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=506\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 2262w\u0022 sizes=\u0022(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003EHigh, and still rising, energy costs have sparked protests across the U.S.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003Ca class=\u0022source\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/attendees-hold-up-signs-during-a-press-conference-at-nv-news-photo\/2281748049\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003EPhoto by Bryan Steffy\/Getty Images for People\u0027s Action\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EWhat the Current Proposals Would Mean\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor oil companies, the direct effect is straightforward: Every dollar paid in tax is a dollar less in earnings. The indirect effect \u2013 discouraging investment \u2013 is likely weaker than usual because the windfall isn\u2019t being invested now anyway.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor government revenue, the 1980 experience is a cautionary tale: Projections built on current prices tend to overstate what a tax will collect.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor consumers, a tax only on domestic production is largely borne by producers, while a tax that touches imports can raise pump prices.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut the use of the revenue matters too. Both the Whitehouse-Khanna and Sherman bills rebate proceeds directly to households. The Whitehouse-Khanna proposal could give an \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.whitehouse.senate.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Big-Oil-Windfall-Profits-Tax-Summary-3-17-26.v2.pdf\u0022\u003Eestimated $216 a year to a single taxpayer at $100-per-barrel oil\u003C\/a\u003E \u2013 helping offset pump prices particularly for lower-income families, who spend a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/03\/18\/why-high-gas-prices-fall-harder-on-lower-earners.html\u0022\u003Elarger share of their budgets on fuel\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhether the trade-off between taxing companies\u2019 war-driven windfall profits and the risks of market intervention is worth making depends on human values as much as on financial estimates. People differ on how fair it is to let companies keep profits that result from a war, and on the reliability of projections about revenue raised and investment lost. Those are not questions economists alone can settle.\u003C!-- Below is The Conversation\u0027s page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --\u003E\u003Cimg style=\u0022border-color:!important;border-style:none;box-shadow:none !important;margin:0 !important;max-height:1px !important;max-width:1px !important;min-height:1px !important;min-width:1px !important;opacity:0 !important;outline:none !important;padding:0 !important;\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/288990\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\u0022 alt=\u0022The Conversation\u0022 width=\u00221\u0022 height=\u00221\u0022 referrerpolicy=\u0022no-referrer-when-downgrade\u0022\u003E\u003C!-- End of code. If you don\u0027t see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThis article is republished from \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThe Conversation\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cem\u003E under a Creative Commons license. Read the \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/as-oil-profits-skyrocket-calls-for-windfall-taxes-rise-288990\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003Eoriginal article\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cem\u003E.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E","summary":"","format":"full_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EEconomists have long held a more nuanced view of windfall taxes than either side of the current debate suggests.\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Economists have long held a more nuanced view of windfall taxes than either side of the current debate suggests."}],"uid":"27469","created_gmt":"2026-09-02 18:24:18","changed_gmt":"2026-09-02 18:28:16","author":"Kristen Bailey","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","location":"Atlanta, GA","dateline":{"date":"2026-08-12T00:00:00-04:00","iso_date":"2026-08-12T00:00:00-04:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"681045":{"id":"681045","type":"image","title":"Money Illustration","body":null,"created":"1788373529","gmt_created":"2026-09-02 18:25:29","changed":"1788373529","gmt_changed":"2026-09-02 18:25:29","alt":"Money Illustration","file":{"fid":"265395","name":"file-20260810-50-5rqp8x.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/2026\/09\/02\/file-20260810-50-5rqp8x.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/2026\/09\/02\/file-20260810-50-5rqp8x.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":74758,"path_740":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/2026\/09\/02\/file-20260810-50-5rqp8x.jpg?itok=enI2NddU"}}},"media_ids":["681045"],"related_links":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.gatech.edu\/expert\/tibor-besedes","title":"Read This Article on The Conversation"}],"groups":[{"id":"1281","name":"Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts"},{"id":"1214","name":"News Room"},{"id":"1282","name":"School of Economics"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[{"id":"194974","name":"go-theconversation"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[{"id":"106361","name":"Business and Economic Development"}],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Ch5\u003EAuthor:\u003C\/h5\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.gatech.edu\/expert\/tibor-besedes\u0022\u003ETibor Besedes\u003C\/a\u003E, professor of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch5\u003EMedia Contact:\u003C\/h5\u003E\u003Cp\u003EShelley Wunder-Smith\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:shelley.wunder-smith@research.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Eshelley.wunder-smith@research.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}