{"686327":{"#nid":"686327","#data":{"type":"news","title":"With More Moon Missions On the Horizon, Avoiding Crowding, Collisions Will Be a Growing\u00a0Challenge","body":[{"value":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022theconversation-article-body\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/returning-to-the-moon-can-benefit-commercial-military-and-political-sectors-a-space-policy-expert-explains-209300\u0022\u003EInterest in the Moon\u003C\/a\u003E has been high \u2013 just in the past two years \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.planetary.org\/space-missions\/every-moon-mission\u0022\u003Ethere have been\u003C\/a\u003E 12 \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/landing-on-the-moon-is-an-incredibly-difficult-feat-2025-has-brought-successes-and-shortfalls-for-companies-and-space-agencies-256046\u0022\u003Eattempts to send missions to the Moon\u003C\/a\u003E, nearly half of which private companies undertook. With so much activity, it\u2019s important to start thinking about coordination and safety.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETo some, this concern may seem premature. About \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.planetary.org\/space-missions\/every-moon-mission\u0022\u003E10 to 20 missions\u003C\/a\u003E are headed to the Moon in the next few years \u2013 far short of the thousands of satellites operating in Earth\u2019s orbit. And the area around the Moon, referred to as cislunar space, is very large. Earth\u2019s orbital area is often considered to extend from near Earth out to \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.esa.int\/Education\/3._The_geostationary_orbit\u0022\u003Egeostationary orbit\u003C\/a\u003E, where a spacecraft orbits at a speed that makes it appear stationary from the Earth\u2019s surface.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECislunar space extends from geostationary orbit out to the Moon \u2013 an area with a volume 2,000 times larger than Earth\u2019s orbital area. This size discrepancy seems to suggest crowding around the Moon may not be an immediate concern.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigure class=\u0022align-center zoomable\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=1000\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\u0022A diagram showing Earth, with three rings around it denoting, from the innermost outwards, low-Earth orbit, medium-Earth orbit, high-Earth orbit and geostationary orbit. it also shows the Moon and the L1 point in the space between Earth and the Moon.\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 srcset=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=353\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=353\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=353\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=443\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=443\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690970\/original\/file-20250915-56-yxqj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=443\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 2262w\u0022 sizes=\u0022(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003ECislunar space refers to the space between Earth\u2019s geostationary orbit and the Moon.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003Ca class=\u0022source\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/astrobiology.nasa.gov\/news\/back-to-the-future-on-the-moon\/\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003EMany Worlds\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003E, \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Ca class=\u0022license\u0022 href=\u0022http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003ECC BY-NC\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHowever, missions tend to choose from a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.afrl.af.mil\/Portals\/90\/Documents\/RV\/A%20Primer%20on%20Cislunar%20Space_Dist%20A_PA2021-1271.pdf?ver=vs6e0sE4PuJ51QC-15DEfg%3D%3D\u0022\u003Eselect set of stable orbits around the Moon\u003C\/a\u003E, so the vastness of cislunar space may be misleading when thinking about whether missions will intersect. Also, most government sensors that track spacecraft aren\u2019t capable of consistently detecting and monitoring objects so far away from Earth, partly due to the glare from the Moon itself.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat uncertainty, combined with the high cost of lunar missions, makes operators more likely to move their spacecraft to avoid a collision, even when the probability of a collision is quite low.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAs an interdisciplinary team combining \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=aESo-coAAAAJ\u0026amp;hl=en\u0022\u003Espace policy\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=ba8fWHIAAAAJ\u0026amp;hl=en\u0022\u003Eastrodynamics expertise\u003C\/a\u003E, we\u2019ve been studying how companies and space agencies could manage traffic in lunar orbit without unnecessary maneuvers. Our research, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2514\/1.A36114\u0022\u003Epublished in March 2025 in the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets\u003C\/a\u003E, shows that due to the popularity of certain orbits and the uncertainties regarding each spacecraft\u2019s location, potential collisions become an issue surprisingly quickly.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOur simulations show that with only 50 satellites in lunar orbit, each of those satellites will need to maneuver four times a year on average to avoid a potential crash \u2013 a significant cost in terms of fuel as well as potential disruption to mission objectives. Lunar orbit could easily reach that number of satellites within a decade if activity continues to increase.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigure class=\u0022align-center zoomable\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=1000\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\u0022A map showing lots of dots on the lunar surface.\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;fit=clip\u0022 srcset=\u0022https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=596\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=596\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=600\u0026amp;h=596\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=45\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=749\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=30\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=749\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/690975\/original\/file-20250915-56-jq6e2z.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0\u0026amp;q=15\u0026amp;auto=format\u0026amp;w=754\u0026amp;h=749\u0026amp;fit=crop\u0026amp;dpr=3 2262w\u0022 sizes=\u0022(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003EWith interest in the Moon rising, companies and space agencies will need to coordinate to avoid disruptions. This map shows all successful or semi-successful soft landings on the Moon, with eight taking place in the past decade.\u003C\/span\u003E \u003Ca class=\u0022source\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/File:Moon_Soft_Landings.svg\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022attribution\u0022\u003EEnzoTC\/Wikimedia Commons, data taken from https:\/\/nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov\/planetary\/lunar\/lunar_artifact_impacts.html and https:\/\/trek.nasa.gov\/moon\/\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EManeuvering Satellites\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECountries\u2019 reports on their current operations in lunar orbit seem to support our finding that congestion around the Moon is quickly becoming a significant issue. In 2023, the Indian Space Research Organization reported it had maneuvered its Chandrayaan-2 spacecraft three times in four years, even though \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.isro.gov.in\/Current_Space_Situation_around_Moon_Assessment.html\u0022\u003Eonly six spacecraft orbited the Moon in that time\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBetter monitoring and coordination between different space agencies could prevent congestion and keep countries from having to regularly move their spacecraft.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMonitoring cislunar space is not just important for safety \u2013 it can also help support national security. Multiple countries have \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/space-threat-assessment-2025\u0022\u003Eweapons that can destroy satellites\u003C\/a\u003E, and some in the space community are concerned that space weapons could be placed in cislunar space to escape detection. The \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.space.com\/military-interest-moon-cislunar-space\u0022\u003EU.S. Space Force is considering\u003C\/a\u003E the potential security dimensions of cislunar space.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe U.S. currently has significant gaps in its ability to monitor this region, and \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spacepol.2023.101548\u0022\u003EMariel\u2019s research\u003C\/a\u003E suggests that developing this capability \u2013 referred to as cislunar space domain awareness \u2013 should be a priority for national security. Improved monitoring would help the U.S. military observe activity in cislunar space, gather intelligence and assess potential threats.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ESolutions in Progress\u003C\/h2\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESeveral research programs are experimenting in this area. The Air Force Research Laboratory is funding a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/afresearchlab.com\/technology\/oracle\/\u0022\u003Eprogram called Oracle\u003C\/a\u003E that is developing multiple systems to improve the U.S. ability to monitor cislunar space.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe first Oracle satellite is \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/spacenews.com\/air-force-research-laboratory-delays-lunar-experiment\/\u0022\u003Eexpected to launch in 2027\u003C\/a\u003E. It \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.advancedspace.com\/missions\/oracle\/\u0022\u003Ewill be located\u003C\/a\u003E at \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/resource\/what-is-a-lagrange-point\/\u0022\u003Ea Lagrange point\u003C\/a\u003E, which is a spot between the Earth and the Moon where the gravitational pull of each object keeps the spacecraft in a stable position. From there, it can detect objects in cislunar space that sensors on Earth cannot see.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigure\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ciframe width=\u0022440\u0022 height=\u0022260\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sDPBaetbKE4?wmode=transparent\u0026amp;start=0\u0022 frameborder=\u00220\u0022 allowfullscreen=\u0022\u0022\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003EThe Air Force Research Laboratory\u2019s Oracle satellite would help the U.S. monitor activity in cislunar space.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/figcaption\u003E\u003C\/figure\u003E\u003Cp\u003EImproving monitoring is only one part of the solution. Entities sending missions to the Moon, including governments and companies, will need to share the locations of their operational missions and coordinate to avoid predicted collisions.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/cara\/madcap\/\u0022\u003ENASA program dedicated to tracking and assessing lunar traffic\u003C\/a\u003E is helping to facilitate this effort. The program compares individual operators\u2019 information about their spacecraft\u2019s current and future planned location to identify potential close approaches. In the future, this type of coordination could improve safety, when combined with sensor observations from systems like Oracle.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECountries and companies planning missions to the Moon could also try to coordinate before they launch their systems, so no missions end up operating too close together.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/space-law-hasnt-been-changed-since-1967-but-the-un-aims-to-update-laws-and-keep-space-peaceful-171351\u0022\u003EThe Outer Space Treaty\u003C\/a\u003E, a set of basic principles developed early in the space age, requires that countries avoid harmfully interfering with other countries\u2019 activities, but the treaty \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/space-law-hasnt-been-changed-since-1967-but-the-un-aims-to-update-laws-and-keep-space-peaceful-171351\u0022\u003Edoesn\u2019t outline how to do this\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.unoosa.org\/oosa\/en\/ourwork\/copuos\/index.html\u0022\u003EUnited Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.unoosa.org\/oosa\/en\/ourwork\/copuos\/atlac\/index.html\u0022\u003Eformed a team\u003C\/a\u003E in February 2025 that hopes to address these and other coordination issues on the Moon.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWith government and commercial missions to the Moon increasing, and NASA\u2019s next human mission to the Moon planned for early 2026, countries will need to work together to protect everyone\u2019s interest in the Moon.\u003C!-- Below is The Conversation\u0027s page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --\u003E\u003Cimg style=\u0022border-color:!important;border-style:none;box-shadow:none !important;margin:0 !important;max-height:1px !important;max-width:1px !important;min-height:1px !important;min-width:1px !important;opacity:0 !important;outline:none !important;padding:0 !important;\u0022 src=\u0022https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/261344\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\u0022 alt=\u0022The Conversation\u0022 width=\u00221\u0022 height=\u00221\u0022 referrerpolicy=\u0022no-referrer-when-downgrade\u0022\u003E\u003C!-- End of code. If you don\u0027t see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThis article is republished from \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThe Conversation\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cem\u003E under a Creative Commons license. Read the \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/with-more-moon-missions-on-the-horizon-avoiding-crowding-and-collisions-will-be-a-growing-challenge-261344\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003Eoriginal article\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cem\u003E.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E","summary":"","format":"full_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EInterest in the Moon has been high \u2013 just in the past two years there have been 12 attempts to send missions to the Moon, nearly half of which private companies undertook. With so much activity, it\u2019s important to start thinking about coordination and safe\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Interest in the Moon has been high \u2013 just in the past two years there have been 12 attempts to send missions to the Moon, nearly half of which private companies undertook. With so much activity, it\u2019s important to start thinking about coordination and safe"}],"uid":"27469","created_gmt":"2025-10-30 16:04:56","changed_gmt":"2025-11-10 17:23:30","author":"Kristen Bailey","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","location":"Atlanta, GA","dateline":{"date":"2025-10-30T00:00:00-04:00","iso_date":"2025-10-30T00:00:00-04:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"678587":{"id":"678587","type":"image","title":"Many companies and space agencies want to send satellites to orbit the Moon, and crowding could become a concern. European Space Agency \u00a9ESA, CC BY-NC","body":"\u003Cp\u003EMany companies and space agencies want to send satellites to orbit the Moon, and crowding could become a concern. \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.esa.int\/ESA_Multimedia\/Images\/2021\/05\/A_constellation_of_satellites_around_the_Moon\u0022\u003EEuropean Space Agency \u00a9ESA\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/\u0022\u003ECC BY-NC\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","created":"1762794715","gmt_created":"2025-11-10 17:11:55","changed":"1762794715","gmt_changed":"2025-11-10 17:11:55","alt":"Many companies and space agencies want to send satellites to orbit the Moon, and crowding could become a concern. European Space Agency \u00a9ESA, CC BY-NC","file":{"fid":"262641","name":"file-20250915-66-widpjy.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/2025\/11\/10\/file-20250915-66-widpjy.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/2025\/11\/10\/file-20250915-66-widpjy.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":167777,"path_740":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/2025\/11\/10\/file-20250915-66-widpjy.jpg?itok=6xXPrErZ"}}},"media_ids":["678587"],"related_links":[{"url":"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/with-more-moon-missions-on-the-horizon-avoiding-crowding-and-collisions-will-be-a-growing-challenge-261344","title":"Read This Article on The Conversation"}],"groups":[{"id":"658168","name":"Experts"},{"id":"1214","name":"News Room"},{"id":"1188","name":"Research Horizons"},{"id":"1289","name":"School of Public Policy"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[{"id":"194701","name":"go-resarchnews"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[{"id":"71911","name":"Earth and Environment"}],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Ch5\u003EAuthors:\u003C\/h5\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/mariel-borowitz-451223\u0022\u003EMariel Borowitz\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/georgia-institute-of-technology-1310\u0022\u003EGeorgia Institute of Technology\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/brian-gunter-2436062\u0022\u003EBrian Gunter\u003C\/a\u003E, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/georgia-institute-of-technology-1310\u0022\u003EGeorgia Institute of Technology\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch5\u003EMedia Contact:\u003C\/h5\u003E\u003Cp\u003EShelley Wunder-Smith\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:shelley.wunder-smith@research.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Eshelley.wunder-smith@research.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}