{"677980":{"#nid":"677980","#data":{"type":"event","title":"PhD Proposal by Karl Roush","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EKarl Roush\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cem\u003E(Advisor: Prof. Dimitri Mavris)\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003Ewill propose a doctoral thesis entitled,\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAdapting the Past for Future Flight: Preliminary Design Framework for\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ELong Duration O\u0026amp;S Aerospace Programs\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EOn\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EFriday, November 1 at 11:00 a.m. EDT\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECollaborative Design Environment (CoVE),\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWeber Space Science and Technology Building (SST II)\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cem\u003Eand\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/teams.microsoft.com\/l\/meetup-join\/19%3ameeting_MDdjZjFiMWYtNGJmZS00NTE2LThhNzUtODU4NGMxYzUyZmNk%40thread.v2\/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%22482198bb-ae7b-4b25-8b7a-6d7f32faa083%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22ccde7e45-2590-45d3-9e11-b6b56c713aa2%22%7d\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 title=\u0022Meeting join link\u0022\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EJoin the meeting now\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAbstract\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr\u003EAerospace programs face significant challenges due to their immense scale, extended timelines, and substantial budgets. While the reuse of heritage technologies helps reduce costs and mitigate risks, it introduces complications as these elements often struggle to meet modern requirements. This incompatibility, coupled with increasingly lengthy post-design phases, leads to substantial operations and support (O\u0026amp;S) challenges.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhile certainly a known issue, these constraints have been documented as worsening in GAO reports, OIG investigations, RAND studies, Congressional Reports, and more. These challenges have taken a priority role in programs\u2019 considerations as evidenced by the command media updates across NASA, the DOD, and commercial entities.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPast efforts to tackle this issue exist, but they often lack applicability to the unique aerospace context, particularly regarding long-term O\u0026amp;S considerations. Attempts at modeling the supply base are confined to broad characterizations and lack the means to communicate disruptive rare events- which are more likely to occur as O\u0026amp;S duration increases.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis research addresses three key gaps in the field: O\u0026amp;S best practices are ill-suited for heritage technology reuse, the shallow and dynamic aerospace supply base in modeling approaches is not captured, and communication of rare events over an extended O\u0026amp;S phase is lacking.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECorrespondingly, the research delivers three main contributions. First, it identifies shortfalls in existing producibility best practices and revises them for heritage technology reuse through a comprehensive case study of the Space Shuttle Program. Second, it enhances supply base modeling by implementing a distributional approach to learning rates and associated cost projections, validated using NASA\u0027s standard PCEC tool and a novel retrospective LCC estimate for the Space Shuttle. Third, it integrates concepts from portfolio management and extreme value theory to create a toolkit for evaluating rare events in the context of cost estimates and O\u0026amp;S considerations.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe legacy of the Space Shuttle continues today with the Space Launch System (SLS) containing many heritage elements and an expectedly long O\u0026amp;S duration, in line with the major themes of this work. Applying the contributions of this work to the SLS program revealed improved adherence to the modified best practices, potential substantial underestimation in NASA\u0027s public cost projections, and reduced likelihood of extreme cost outliers for SLS relative to the Shuttle program.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn today\u0027s fiscally cautious space environment, the challenge lies in strategically leveraging prior resources while considering financial realities over long O\u0026amp;S horizons. The efforts of this research work aim not only to ensure the long-term viability of projects like SLS under this dual mandate, but also to contribute to broader efforts in planning the next generation of space exploration programs. It provides actionable guidance and valuable tools for immediate use by designers, planners, cost estimators, and engineers, paving the way for the next era of human spaceflight.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECommittee\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003EProf. Dimitri Mavris \u2013 School of Aerospace Engineering (advisor)\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EProf. Brian Gunter \u2013 School of Aerospace Engineering\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EProf. Daniel Schrage\u2013 School of Aerospace Engineering\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EDr. Elena Garcia \u2013 School of Aerospace Engineering\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EClaude Russell (Russ) Joyner II \u2013 Aerojet Rocketdyne\/An L3Harris Technologies Company\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E","summary":"","format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAdapting the Past for Future Flight: Preliminary Design Framework for\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ELong Duration O\u0026amp;S Aerospace Programs\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Adapting the Past for Future Flight: Preliminary Design Framework for  Long Duration O\u0026S Aerospace Programs "}],"uid":"27707","created_gmt":"2024-10-29 20:23:59","changed_gmt":"2024-10-29 20:24:31","author":"Tatianna Richardson","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","field_event_time":{"event_time_start":"2024-11-01T11:00:00-04:00","event_time_end":"2024-11-01T13:00:00-04:00","event_time_end_last":"2024-11-01T13:00:00-04:00","gmt_time_start":"2024-11-01 15:00:00","gmt_time_end":"2024-11-01 17:00:00","gmt_time_end_last":"2024-11-01 17:00:00","rrule":null,"timezone":"America\/New_York"},"location":"Collaborative Design Environment (CoVE),  Weber Space Science and Technology Building (SST II) ","extras":[],"groups":[{"id":"221981","name":"Graduate Studies"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[{"id":"102851","name":"Phd proposal"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[{"id":"1788","name":"Other\/Miscellaneous"}],"invited_audience":[{"id":"78771","name":"Public"}],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}