{"674235":{"#nid":"674235","#data":{"type":"news","title":"Grappling With Uncertainty Amid Cyberattacks","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u201cWhat I\u2019ve repeatedly found is that people are terrified of cyberattacks, because, frankly, cyberattacks are scary,\u201d said Ryan Shandler, assistant professor of political science in Georgia Tech\u2019s \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/scp.cc.gatech.edu\/\u0022\u003ESchool of Cybersecurity and Privacy\u003C\/a\u003E, where his research focuses on how people react to cyberattacks. \u201cPeople don\u2019t fully understand them. They don\u2019t know who\u2019s behind them.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EShandler\u2019s \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/00223433231218178?journalCode=jpra\u0022\u003Elatest study\u003C\/a\u003E looks at the effect this uncertainty has on public opinion after a cyber incident.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cWhen faced with the unknown, people conjure visions of doom, where one bad guy in his mom\u2019s basement clicks a button and takes over the world.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EAccording to Shandler, even a minor cyberattack can generate the kind of fear that \u201cchanges world views or causes people to vote a certain way, sacrificing their civil liberties for security and surveillance, regardless of how intrusive.\u201d By way of example, Shandler refers to a digital mishap hyperbolically reported as a major cyberattack on a Florida water plant that actually resulted from an employee mistake.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cThese reactions from the general public, even when they don\u2019t know who is behind an attack, can have strong political and societal consequences,\u201d he said.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EShifting the Focus\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003ESometimes he refers to this uncertainty as \u201ca shadow of ambiguity.\u201d Shandler and his collaborators have added a new element to the body of cyber-conflict literature, most of which deals with ambiguity from an operational or strategic perspective. His team has written an article for a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/scp.cc.gatech.edu\/Special-Issue-on-Cyber-Conflict\u0022\u003Especial issue\u003C\/a\u003E of the \u003Cem\u003EJournal of Peace Research\u003C\/em\u003E that focuses on the uncertainty surrounding cybersecurity incidents. Shandler also co-edited the issue.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe researchers surveyed 2,025 participants, who were asked to evaluate potential cyber threat scenarios and decide on various retaliatory measures.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EA typical question presented two scenarios positing a cyberattack on the U.S. In one, intelligence sources might be 70% certain that China was the perpetrator; in the other, intelligence might be 40% certain it was caused by the United Kingdom. Other options in the scenario included the proposed means of retaliation and the chance of conflict escalation. Participants were asked which strategic course they preferred \u2014 whether to retaliate and, if so, against whom.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cAs the government\u2019s certainty percentage goes down, the level of support for retaliation goes down, which is unsurprising,\u201d said Shandler, whose collaborators on the study were Nathaniel Porter of Virginia Tech and Eric Jardine of cybersecurity firm Chainalysis. \u201cBut when we dig a little deeper, we can see that it depends on who the other country is. If we\u2019re 50% sure China is behind it, we tend to lean more toward retaliation than if we\u2019re 50% sure that England is behind it.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EMental Shortcuts\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EFaced with the complexities of cyberspace and the potential threats inhabiting it, most people will fall back on mental shortcuts when forced to decide in the face of uncertainty, the researchers assert. As such, perceptions of countries as adversaries or allies play a role in decision-making.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EPolitical partisanship also played a role in how people responded to the scenarios. For Republicans, the perception of another country as an ally or rival mattered more than it did for Democrats. This also wasn\u2019t particularly astonishing to the researchers.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cWe didn\u2019t want to guess \u2014 we wanted to find out how people react when faced with the ambiguity of a cyberattack,\u201d Shandler said. He and his colleagues hoped to identify what they called a \u201ccertainty threshold.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThat is, they wanted to answer a basic question: How sure do authorities need to be about the perpetrator to gain public support for economic, diplomatic, or military responses?\u0026nbsp; After gathering and crunching the numbers, the researchers put the threshold at 60% certainty, though it shifts depending on the identity of the presumed attacker.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EShandler\u2019s colleagues in the School of Cybersecurity and Privacy are mostly computer scientists who work in bits, bytes, and rational logic \u2014 everything is mapped out and orderly, unlike human beings, who aren\u2019t logical or rational.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cPeople are not computer code. We\u2019re messy, emotional, and use mental shortcuts to make decisions,\u201d Shandler said. \u201cSo, we thought a human analysis of the uncertainty that is so much a part of cyberspace would be a good idea.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EUltimately, Shandler hopes his research will force policymakers and national security officials to pay more attention to the way the public experiences cyber threats, because voters won\u2019t write a blank check and support retaliation in response to every attack.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cWhen states volley cyberattacks back and forth, the public gets caught in the crossfire, and they need to be a stakeholder in decisions about how to react,\u201d he said.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EAuthorities should be more open with the public, he added. That would go a long way toward demystifying cyberattacks and avoiding the potential of a mass panic.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cIn my experience, mystifying the situation is how we get to the theories of cyber doom and Armageddon and \u003Cem\u003EMission Impossible\u003C\/em\u003E and the robots coming to get us,\u201d Shandler said. \u201cI think what people are imagining is much worse than the reality. It\u2019s the lack of information that scares them.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECITATION:\u003C\/strong\u003E Eric Jardine, Nathaniel Porter, Ryan Shandler. \u0022Cyberattacks and public opinion \u2013 The effect of uncertainty in guiding preferences,\u0022 \u003Cem\u003EJournal of Peace Research\u003C\/em\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/00223433231218178\u0022\u003Edoi.org\/10.1177\/0022343323121\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","summary":"","format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EEven minor cyberattacks can cause an over-reaction from an uninformed public.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Even minor cyberattacks can cause a fearful reaction from the public."}],"uid":"28153","created_gmt":"2024-04-17 04:01:08","changed_gmt":"2024-04-18 00:30:02","author":"Jerry Grillo","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2024-04-16T00:00:00-04:00","iso_date":"2024-04-16T00:00:00-04:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"673727":{"id":"673727","type":"image","title":"Ryan Shandler","body":"\u003Cp\u003ERyan Shandler\u0027s latest study looks at the effects of uncertainty on the public following a cyberattack.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","created":"1713325804","gmt_created":"2024-04-17 03:50:04","changed":"1713325947","gmt_changed":"2024-04-17 03:52:27","alt":"Ryan Shandler","file":{"fid":"257156","name":"Ryan.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/2024\/04\/16\/Ryan.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/2024\/04\/16\/Ryan.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":5337052,"path_740":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/2024\/04\/16\/Ryan.jpg?itok=PUh2kNzx"}}},"media_ids":["673727"],"groups":[{"id":"1188","name":"Research Horizons"}],"categories":[{"id":"153","name":"Computer Science\/Information Technology and Security"},{"id":"147","name":"Military Technology"}],"keywords":[{"id":"1404","name":"Cybersecurity"},{"id":"170215","name":"cyberattacks"},{"id":"187915","name":"go-researchnews"}],"core_research_areas":[{"id":"145171","name":"Cybersecurity"}],"news_room_topics":[{"id":"71901","name":"Society and Culture"}],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:jerry.grillo@ibb.gatech.edu\u0022\u003EJerry Grillo\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","format":"limited_html"}],"email":["jerry.grillo@ibb.gatech.edu"],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}