{"64116":{"#nid":"64116","#data":{"type":"news","title":"Pakistan Floods Last Summer Could Have Been Predicted","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EFive days before intense monsoonal deluges unleashed vast floods \nacross Pakistan last July, computer models at a European \nweather-forecasting center were giving clear indications that the \ndownpours were imminent. Now, a new scientific study that \nretrospectively examines the raw data from these computer models, has \nconfirmed that, if the information had been processed, forecasters could\n have predicted extremely accurate rainfall totals 8-10 days beforehand.\n\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe study also finds that the floods themselves could have been \npredicted if this data, which originated from the European Centre for \nMedium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), had been processed and fed \ninto a hydrological model, which takes terrain into account.\u003C\/p\u003E\n \n\u003Cp\u003EThe July floods killed thousands of people and tens of thousands of \ncattle, and left large parts of Pakistan in shambles. The waters \ndisplaced, or disrupted the lives of, an estimated 20 million people.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cPeople don\u0027t understand the powers of modern environmental \nprediction,\u201d says Peter Webster, a professor of earth and atmospheric \nscience at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and lead \nauthor of the new study. \u201cThis disaster could have been minimized and \neven the flooding could have been minimized. If we were working with \nPakistan, they would have known 8 to 10 days in advance that the floods \nwere coming.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\n\t\n\u003Cp\u003EHe and his colleagues report their findings in a paper accepted for publication in \u003Cem\u003EGeophysical Research Letters\u003C\/em\u003E, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe ECMWF, a London-based organization of 33 participating European \ncountries, \u201cdoes not give out weather forecasts and weather warnings to \nthe general public or media,\u201d notes  ECMWF scientist Anna Ghelli. \u201cECMWF\n provides numerical forecasts to its member and co-operating states and \nthey are responsible to prepare forecasts for the public and advise the \nauthorities in their own countries.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cWe noticed that the signal was there five days in advance,\u201d Ghelli \nrecalls. However, the lack of a cooperating agreement between the \nforecasting center and Pakistan meant that these rainfall warnings \ndidn\u0027t make it to the Pakistani people, nor did Pakistan\u0027s own \nmeteorological agency forecast the flooding.\u003C\/p\u003E \n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn their research, the Georgia Tech meteorologists use data from the \nEuropean center to analyze whether or not the rainfall was above average\n for Pakistan and if the huge surges in the Indus River would have been \npredictable if flood forecasters were monitoring the country. They \ndetermine that, while the rainfall total for 2010 was slightly above \naverage for the region, the July deluges were exceptionally rare, with \nrainfall amounts exceeding 10 times the average daily monsoon rainfall. \nThey also find that if a flood forecasting model had been in place, the \nfloods would have been predicted in time to issue warnings.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EAs a result of processing the raw output from ECMWF models from \nbefore the Pakistani deluge, the team achieves greater accuracy than the\n raw numerical forecasts alone provided. Some weather stations in \nPakistan recorded nearly a foot (30 centimeters) of rainfall during the \n4-day downpour. The after-the-fact predictions by Webster and his \ncolleagues came in slightly below those amounts at the same locations.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWebster says that processing raw data into weather forecasts and \ncombining them with hydrological models is only half the work. In order \nto have any effect, the resulting flood forecasts must be successfully \ndisseminated at the village level, and local leaders must also \nunderstand them.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn nearby Bangladesh, Webster spent five years creating a \nflood-forecasting technique and organizing a cooperating agreement with \nthe Georgia Institute of Technology, ECMWF, the Asian Disaster \nPreparedness Center and the government of Bangladesh. When flooding \noccurred there several years ago, warnings made possible by the \nforecasting pact not only averted loss of life, but also saved residents\n as much as $450 per farm \u2014 about the equivalent of an average annual \nsalary in that country.\u003C\/p\u003E \n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn a few weeks, Webster will attend an international meeting of \ndeveloping nations in Bangkok to build support for flood forecasting in \nPakistan. He says a forecasting system in Pakistan would cost a few \nmillion dollars to set-up, but as little as $100,000 a year once \noperational. He hopes to convince the World Bank, currently providing $1\n billion of flood-recovery financing to Pakistan, to fund the project.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EIn Bangladesh, Webster recalls, an imam at a local mosque told him \nabout how they discussed the flood forecasts each day in prayer. This is\n the sort of local solution that Webster envisions for Pakistan as well.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe National Science Foundation funded this research.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWritten by the American Geophysical Union\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EFive days before intense monsoonal deluges unleashed vast floods across \nPakistan last July, computer models at a European weather-forecasting \ncenter were giving clear indications that the downpours were imminent. \nNow, a new scientific study that retrospectively examines the raw data \nfrom these computer models, has confirmed that, if the information had \nbeen processed, forecasters could have predicted extremely accurate \nrainfall totals 8-10 days beforehand.\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Peter Webster talks about how better coordination could have minimized the disaster."}],"uid":"27310","created_gmt":"2011-02-08 09:42:14","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 03:08:06","author":"David Terraso","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2011-01-31T00:00:00-05:00","iso_date":"2011-01-31T00:00:00-05:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"related_links":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.agu.org\/","title":"American Geophysical Union"},{"url":"http:\/\/www.agu.org\/news\/press\/pr_archives\/2011\/2011-04.shtml","title":"Story on American Geophysical Union\u0027s Site"}],"groups":[{"id":"1183","name":"Home"}],"categories":[{"id":"154","name":"Environment"}],"keywords":[{"id":"4896","name":"College of Sciences"},{"id":"2323","name":"flood"},{"id":"8320","name":"pakistan"},{"id":"11834","name":"Peter Webster"},{"id":"166926","name":"School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EPeter Weiss\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPublic Information Manager, American Geophysical Union\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E202-777-7507\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:PWeiss@agu.org\u0022\u003EPWeiss@agu.org\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDavid Terraso\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECommunications and Marketing, Georgia Tech\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E404-385-2966\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:david.terraso@comm.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Edavid.terraso@comm.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":["david.terraso@comm.gatech.edu"],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}