Risk Assessment for Pyroclastic Flows

Event Details
  • Date/Time:
    • Tuesday December 7, 2010 - Wednesday December 8, 2010
      10:00 am - 10:59 am
  • Location: ISyE Executive classroom
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Summary Sentence: Risk Assessment for Pyroclastic Flows

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TITLE:  Risk Assessment for Pyroclastic Flows

SPEAKER:  Jim Berger


Risk assessment of rare natural hazards -- such as large  volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows -- is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. Solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation. The techniques that are developed for risk assessment are illustrated on a test-bed example involving pyroclastic flow.

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In Campus Calendar

School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISYE)

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  • Created By: Anita Race
  • Workflow Status: Draft
  • Created On: Dec 2, 2010 - 5:33am
  • Last Updated: Oct 7, 2016 - 9:53pm