{"623053":{"#nid":"623053","#data":{"type":"news","title":"Instability in Antarctic Ice Projected to Make Sea Level Rise Rapidly","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EImages of vanishing Arctic ice are\u0026nbsp;jarring, but its\u0026nbsp;potential contributions to sea level rise are no match for Antarctica\u0026rsquo;s, even if receding southern ice is less eye-catching. Now, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/early\/2019\/07\/02\/1904822116\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ea study says \u003C\/a\u003Ethat instability hidden within Antarctic ice is likely to accelerate its flow into the ocean and push sea level up at a more rapid pace than previously expected.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EIn the last six years, five closely observed Antarctic glaciers have doubled their rate of ice loss,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/funding\/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=505320\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eaccording to the National Science Foundation\u003C\/a\u003E. At least one, Thwaites Glacier, modeled for the new study, will likely\u0026nbsp;succumb\u0026nbsp;to this\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.jpl.nasa.gov\/news\/news.php?feature=7322\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Einstability\u003C\/a\u003E, a volatile process that pushes ice into the ocean fast.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EHow much ice the glacier will shed in the coming 50 to 800 years can\u0026rsquo;t exactly be projected due to unpredictable fluctuations in climate and the need for more data. But researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and the University of Washington have factored the instability into 500 ice flow simulations for Thwaites with refined calculations.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe scenarios diverged strongly from each other but together pointed to the eventual triggering of the instability, which will be described in the Q\u0026amp;A\u0026nbsp;below. Even if global warming were to later stop, the instability would keep pushing ice out to sea at an enormously accelerated rate over the coming centuries.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EAnd this is if ice melt due to warming oceans does not get worse than it is today. The study used\u0026nbsp;present-day ice melt rates because the researchers were interested in the instability factor in itself.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EGlacier tipping point\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;If you trigger this instability, you don\u0026rsquo;t need to continue to force the ice sheet by cranking up temperatures. It will keep going by itself, and that\u0026rsquo;s the worry,\u0026rdquo; said Alex Robel, who led the study and is an\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/iceclimate.eas.gatech.edu\/\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eassistant professor in Georgia Tech\u0026rsquo;s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences\u003C\/a\u003E. \u0026ldquo;Climate variations will still be important after that tipping point because they will determine how fast the ice will move.\u0026rdquo;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;After reaching the tipping point, Thwaites Glacier could lose all of its ice in a period of 150 years. That would make for a sea level rise of about half a meter (1.64 feet),\u0026rdquo; said\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/science.jpl.nasa.gov\/people\/HSeroussi\/\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003ENASA JPL scientist Helene Seroussi\u003C\/a\u003E, who collaborated on the study. For comparison, current sea level is 20 cm (\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/114\/45\/11806#ref-5\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Enearly 8 inches\u003C\/a\u003E) above pre-global warming levels and is blamed for increased coastal flooding.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe researchers published their \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/early\/2019\/07\/02\/1904822116\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Estudy in the journal\u0026nbsp;\u003Cem\u003EProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;on Monday, July 8, 2019. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe study also showed that the instability makes forecasting more uncertain, leading to the broad spread of scenarios. This is particularly relevant to the challenge of\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/mediaspace.gatech.edu\/media\/Climate+ChangeA+Engineering%27s+Grand+Challenge+Georgia+Tech%27s+Role+-+G.+Wayne+Clough\/1_rlizj1wx\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eengineering against flood dangers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;You want to engineer critical infrastructure to be resistant against the upper bound of potential sea level scenarios a hundred years from now,\u0026rdquo; Robel said. \u0026ldquo;It can mean building your water treatment plants and nuclear reactors for the absolute worst-case scenario, which could be two or three feet of sea level rise from Thwaites Glacier alone, so it\u0026rsquo;s a huge difference.\u0026rdquo;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EQ\u0026amp;A\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhy is Antarctic ice the big driver of sea level rise?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EUnderstanding the instability is easier with this background information:\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EArctic sea ice is already floating in water. Readers will likely remember that 90% of an iceberg\u0026rsquo;s mass is underwater, and that when its ice melts, the volume shrinks, resulting in no change in sea level.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EBut when ice masses long supported by land, like mountain glaciers, melt, the water that ends up in the ocean adds to sea level. Antarctica holds the most land-supported ice, even if the bulk of that land is seabed holding up just part of the ice\u0026rsquo;s mass, while water holds up part of it. Also, Antarctica is an ice leviathan.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;There\u0026rsquo;s almost eight times as much ice in the Antarctic ice sheet as there is in the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/nsidc.org\/greenland-today\/\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EGreenland ice sheet\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;and 50 times as much as in all the mountain glaciers in the world,\u0026rdquo; Robel said.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhat is that \u0026lsquo;instability\u0026rsquo; underneath the ice?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe line between where the ice sheet rests on the seafloor and where it extends over water is called\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.antarcticglaciers.org\/glaciers-and-climate\/ice-ocean-interactions\/grounding-lines\/\u0022\u003Ethe grounding line\u003C\/a\u003E. In spots where the bedrock underneath the ice behind the grounding line slopes down, deepening as it moves inland, the instability can kick in.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThat would look like this: On deeper beds, ice moves faster because water is giving it a little more lift, to begin with, then warmer ocean water can hollow out the bottom of the ice, adding water to the ocean. But, more importantly, the ice above the hollow loses land contact and flows faster out to sea.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;Once ice is past the grounding line and only\u0026nbsp;over water, it\u0026rsquo;s\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.antarcticglaciers.org\/glaciers-and-climate\/sea-level-rise-2\/\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Econtributing to sea level\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;because buoyancy is holding it up more than it was before,\u0026rdquo; Robel said. \u0026ldquo;Ice flows out into the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.antarcticglaciers.org\/glaciers-and-climate\/ice-ocean-interactions\/marine-ice-sheets\/\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Efloating ice shelf\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;and melts or breaks off as icebergs.\u0026rdquo;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;The process becomes self-perpetuating,\u0026rdquo; Seroussi said.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Csup\u003E\u003Cem\u003E[Ready for graduate school?\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.gradadmiss.gatech.edu\/apply-now\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EHere\u0026#39;s how to apply to Georgia Tech.\u003C\/a\u003E]\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EHow did the researchers integrate instability into sea level forecasting?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe researchers borrowed \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/users.math.yale.edu\/users\/wettlaufer\/articles\/MW_JMP_2013.pdf\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Emath from statistical physics\u003C\/a\u003E that calculates what haphazard influences do to predictability in a physical system, like ice flow, acted upon by outside forces, like temperature changes. They applied the math to data-packed simulations of possible future fates of Thwaites Glacier, located in West Antarctica, where ice loss is most.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThey made another\u0026nbsp;surprising discovery. Normally, when climate conditions fluctuate strongly, Antarctic ice evens out the effects. Ice flow may increase but gradually, not wildly, but the instability produced the opposite effect in the simulations.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;The system didn\u0026rsquo;t damp out the fluctuations, it actually amplified them. It increased the chances of rapid ice loss,\u0026rdquo; Robel said.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Ch4\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EHow rapid is \u0026lsquo;rapid\u0026rsquo; sea level rise and when will we feel it?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EThe study\u0026rsquo;s time scale was centuries, as is common for sea level studies. In the simulations, Thwaites Glacier colossal ice loss kicked in after 600 years, but it could come sooner\u0026nbsp;if oceans warm and as the instability reveals more of its secrets.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026ldquo;It could happen in the next 200 to 600 years. It depends on the bedrock topography under the ice, and we don\u0026rsquo;t know it in great detail yet,\u0026rdquo; Seroussi said.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003ESo far, Antarctica and Greenland have lost a small fraction of their ice, but already, shoreline infrastructures face challenges from\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/sotc\/national\/2018\/05\/supplemental\/page-1\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eincreased tidal flooding\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;and storm surges. Sea level is expected to rise by up to two feet by the end of this century.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EFor about 2,000 years until the late 1800s, sea level held steady, then it began climbing,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/ocean.si.edu\/through-time\/ancient-seas\/sea-level-rise\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eaccording to the Smithsonian Institution\u003C\/a\u003E. The annual rate of sea level rise has roughly doubled since 1990.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAlso watch VIDEO\u003C\/strong\u003E: \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/mediaspace.gatech.edu\/media\/clough\/1_rlizj1wx\u0022\u003EEasy explanation of climate change\u0026rsquo;s sea level threat and the grand challenge of engineering against it by G. Wayne Clough\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/mediaspace.gatech.edu\/media\/clough\/1_rlizj1wx\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E, Georgia Tech\u0026rsquo;s President Emeritus\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EGerard Roe from the University of Washington coauthored the study. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation (grant PLR-1735715 and PLR-1643299) and\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003Eby a grant from\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/issm.jpl.nasa.gov\/\u0022 rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003ENASA Cryospheric Science and Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Programs\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cem\u003E. Any findings, conclusions or recommendations are those of the authors and not necessarily of the funding agencies.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWriter \u0026amp;\u0026nbsp;Media Representative\u003C\/strong\u003E: Ben Brumfield (404-660-1408), email:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:ben.brumfield@comm.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Eben.brumfield@comm.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EGeorgia Institute of Technology\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n177 North Avenue\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\nAtlanta, Georgia \u0026nbsp;30332-0181 \u0026nbsp;USA\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EInstability hidden within Antarctic ice is likely to accelerate its flow into the ocean and push sea level up at a more rapid pace than previously expected. Even if images of vanishing Arctic ice and mountain glaciers are jarring, their potential contributions to sea level rise are no match for those of Antarctica, Earth\u0026#39;s\u0026nbsp;ice leviathan.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Instability hidden within Antarctic ice is likely to accelerate its flow into the ocean and push sea level up at a more rapid pace than previously expected."}],"uid":"31759","created_gmt":"2019-07-08 18:58:15","changed_gmt":"2019-09-10 21:55:39","author":"Ben Brumfield","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2019-07-08T00:00:00-04:00","iso_date":"2019-07-08T00:00:00-04:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"623047":{"id":"623047","type":"image","title":"Thwaites Glacier\u0027s outer edge","body":null,"created":"1562610337","gmt_created":"2019-07-08 18:25:37","changed":"1580307455","gmt_changed":"2020-01-29 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