{"600179":{"#nid":"600179","#data":{"type":"event","title":"Can Climate Sensitivity be Constrained by Current Observations?","body":[{"value":"\u003Ch4\u003EEAS Spring 2018 Seminar Series Presents: Dr. Kate Marvel, Columbia University and NASA-GISS\u003C\/h4\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EEquilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a purely theoretical but useful metric of climate change, defined as the planet\u0026#39;s long-term response to the abrupt doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.\u0026nbsp; The ECS range arising from CMIP models has remained stubbornly large despite many advances in climate modeling and computing power.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;It has been suggested in recent years that satellite and in situ observations of the recent past may help to narrow this range.\u0026nbsp; However, the usefulness of this exercise depends on whether the present-day climate is predictive of the far future climate.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EIn this talk, I\u0026#39;ll discuss the reasons the present may be dissimilar to the future in the CMIP5 models.\u0026nbsp; I\u0026#39;ll present work in which we argue that, at least in a perfect model framework, observations are highly likely to underestimate feedbacks at equilibrium.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EAdditionally, the particular manifestation of internal variability and forced response that characterizes recent observations resulted in an even lower estimate.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; Moreover, we find that not only do climate models indicate that current estimates of ECS are biased low, but models\u0026#39; sensitivities to observed conditions are not even predictive of their long-term sensitivities.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003EOur results suggest a need for caution in any attempt to use current conditions to constrain long-term climate projections.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":"","field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"A seminar by Dr. Kate Marvel, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Spring 2018 Seminar Speaker Series"}],"uid":"34458","created_gmt":"2017-12-21 14:19:56","changed_gmt":"2018-01-05 16:01:49","author":"nlawson3","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","field_event_time":{"event_time_start":"2018-02-15T11:00:00-05:00","event_time_end":"2018-02-15T11:50:00-05:00","event_time_end_last":"2018-02-15T11:50:00-05:00","gmt_time_start":"2018-02-15 16:00:00","gmt_time_end":"2018-02-15 16:50:00","gmt_time_end_last":"2018-02-15 16:50:00","rrule":null,"timezone":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"600171":{"id":"600171","type":"image","title":"Kate Marvel","body":null,"created":"1513863547","gmt_created":"2017-12-21 13:39:07","changed":"1513863547","gmt_changed":"2017-12-21 13:39:07","alt":"","file":{"fid":"228804","name":"Kate Marvel.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/Kate%20Marvel.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/Kate%20Marvel.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":18136,"path_740":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/images\/Kate%20Marvel.jpg?itok=ReXzvWNA"}}},"media_ids":["600171"],"groups":[{"id":"364801","name":"School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences (EAS)"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[{"id":"175623","name":"EAS Seminar"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[{"id":"1795","name":"Seminar\/Lecture\/Colloquium"}],"invited_audience":[{"id":"78761","name":"Faculty\/Staff"},{"id":"174045","name":"Graduate students"},{"id":"78751","name":"Undergraduate students"}],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EHost: Kim Cobb\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003ELogistics: Natasha Lawson\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","format":"limited_html"}],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}