Policy modeling refers to the application of operations research, statistics, and other quantitative methods to model policy problems. Recognizing that analyses of all sorts often exhibit diminishing returns in insight to effort, the hope is to capture key features of various policy issues with relatively simple “first-strike” models. Problem selection and formulation thus compete with the mathematics of solution methods in determining successful applications: Where do good problems come from? How can analysts tell if a particular issue is worth pursuing?

In addressing these questions, Dr. Kaplan will review some personal adventures in policy modeling selected from public housing, HIV/AIDS prevention, bioterror preparedness, suicide bombings and counterterrorism, in vitro fertilization, predicting presidential elections, and sports.

For further information on Dr. Kaplan, see his personal website: http://faculty.som.yale.edu/EdKaplan/.

Professor Kaplan's research has been reported on the front pages of the New York Times and the Jerusalem Post, editorialized in the Wall Street Journal, recognized by the New York Times Magazine's Year in Ideas, and discussed in many other major media outlets. The author of more than 125 research articles, Professor Kaplan received both the Lanchester Prize and the Edelman Award, two top honors in theoperations research field, among many other awards. An elected member of both theNational Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine of the US National Academies, he has also twice received the prestigious Lady Davis Visiting Professorshipat the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he has investigated AIDS policy issues facing the State of Israel. Kaplan’s current research focuses on the application ofoperations research to problems in counterterrorism and homeland security.

In 2014, he was elected to the presidency of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), the world’s largest society of operations research and analytics academics and professionals.  He will serve as President-Elect in 2015, President in 2016, and Past-President in 2017.