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  <title><![CDATA[Tipping points, critical transitions, and bifurcations: Are "generic early-warning signals" applicable to medicine?]]></title>
  <body><![CDATA[<h4>School of Physics Nonlinear Science &amp; Mathematical Physics: Prof. Leon Glass, McGill University</h4><p>Recent work from Marten Scheffer and colleagues has made bold claims.</p><p>"Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur [1]. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching." In a paper, now in Press in Critical Care Medicine, Scheffer and colleagues (including me) argue that these results may be applicable in medicine [2].&nbsp; I will discuss this work from the context of my own interest in bifurcations, problems associated with alternans rhythms [3], and transition to and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.</p><p>&nbsp;[1] "Early-warning signals for critical transitions" Nature 461, 53&nbsp;(2009) by Marten Scheffer et al.</p><p>&nbsp;[2] "Slowing down of recovery as generic risk marker for acute transitions in chronic diseases" by Olde-Rikkert et al. Critical Care Medicine (2016)</p><p>&nbsp;[3] "Predicting the onset of period-doubling bifurcations in noisy cardiac systems" T. Quail, A. Shrier, L. Glass, PNAS 112, 9358-9363 (2015)</p>]]></body>
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