{"44571":{"#nid":"44571","#data":{"type":"event","title":"ISyE Guest Lecturer:  Shane Henderson","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EForecast Errors in Service Systems \u003C\/strong\u003E\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EGUEST LECTURER\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nProfessor Shane Henderson\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAFFILIATION\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCornell University\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EABSTRACT\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJoint work with Sam Steckley and Vijay Mehrotra\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EWe investigate the presence and impact of forecast errors in the arrival rate of customers to a service system. Analysis of a large data set shows that forecast errors can be large relative to the fluctuations naturally expected in a Poisson process. We show that ignoring forecast errors typically leads to over-estimates of performance, and that forecast errors of the magnitude seen in our data set can have a practically significant impact on predictions of long-run performance. We also define short-run performance as the random percentage of calls received in a particular period that are answered in a timely fashion. We prove a central limit theorem that yields a normal-mixture approximation for its distribution for Markovian queues, and sketch an argument that shows that a normal-mixture approximation should be valid in great generality. Our results provide motivation for studying staffing strategies that are more flexible than the fixed-level staffing rules traditionally studied in the literature.\n\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"Forecast Errors in Service Systems","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"ISyE Guest Lecturer:  Shane Henderson"}],"uid":"27216","created_gmt":"2009-10-12 21:22:54","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 01:48:27","author":"Ruth Gregory","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","field_event_time":{"event_time_start":"2007-03-27T12:00:00-04:00","event_time_end":"2007-03-27T13:00:00-04:00","event_time_end_last":"2007-03-27T13:00:00-04:00","gmt_time_start":"2007-03-27 16:00:00","gmt_time_end":"2007-03-27 17:00:00","gmt_time_end_last":"2007-03-27 17:00:00","rrule":null,"timezone":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"groups":[{"id":"1242","name":"School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISYE)"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[{"id":"6393","name":"ISyE Guest Lecturer"},{"id":"167249","name":"Shane Henderson"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[{"id":"1795","name":"Seminar\/Lecture\/Colloquium"}],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cstrong\u003EHayriye Ayhan\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EISyE\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:hayriye.ayhan@isye.gatech.edu\u0022\u003EContact Hayriye Ayhan\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E404-894-2300\u003C\/strong\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}