{"41234":{"#nid":"41234","#data":{"type":"news","title":"New Type of El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EEl Ni\u0026ntilde;o years typically result in fewer hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean. But a new study suggests that the form of El Ni\u0026ntilde;o may be changing potentially causing not only a greater number of hurricanes than in average years, but also a greater chance of hurricanes making landfall, according to climatologists at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The study appears in the July 3, 2009, edition of the journal Science.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0022Normally, El Ni\u0026ntilde;o results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall,\u0022 said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech\u0027s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EThat\u0027s because this new type of El Ni\u0026ntilde;o, known as El Ni\u0026ntilde;o Modoki (from the Japanese meaning \u0022similar, but different\u0022), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Ni\u0026ntilde;o event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EEven though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Ni\u0026ntilde;o forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Ni\u0026ntilde;o (from the Spanish meaning \u0022little boy\u0022 or \u0022Christ child\u0022) is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Ni\u0026ntilde;o occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Ni\u0026ntilde;o come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Ni\u0026ntilde;o Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0022This new type of El Ni\u0026ntilde;o is more predictable,\u0022 said Webster. \u0022We\u0027re not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months.\u0022 \n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EAs to why the form of El Ni\u0026ntilde;o is changing to El Ni\u0026ntilde;o Modoki, that\u0027s not entirely clear yet, said Webster.\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0022This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Ni\u0026ntilde;o,\u0022 he said. \u0022Or it could be El Ni\u0026ntilde;o\u0027s response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure.\u0022\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EIn the study, Webster, along with Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Chair Judy Curry and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim used satellite data along with historical tropical storm records and climate models.\n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EThe research team is currently looking at La Ni\u0026ntilde;a, the cooling of the surface waters in the Eastern and Central Pacific. \n\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0022In the past, La Ni\u0026ntilde;a has been associated with a greater than average number of North Atlantic hurricanes and La Ni\u0026ntilde;a seems to be changing its structure as well,\u0022 said Webster. \u0022We\u0027re vitally interested in understanding why El Ni\u0026ntilde;o-La Ni\u0026ntilde;a has changed. To determine this we need to run a series of numerical experiments with climate models.\u0022\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"A new study, in the journal Science, suggests that the form of El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o may be changing potentially causing not only a greater number of hurricanes than in average years, but also a greater chance of hurricanes making landfall.","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o Modoki could also mean greater warning of storms"}],"uid":"27310","created_gmt":"2009-06-26 00:00:00","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 03:02:18","author":"David Terraso","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2009-07-02T00:00:00-04:00","iso_date":"2009-07-02T00:00:00-04:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"41235":{"id":"41235","type":"image","title":"Hurricanes Gustav and Hannah","body":null,"created":"1449174285","gmt_created":"2015-12-03 20:24:45","changed":"1475894366","gmt_changed":"2016-10-08 02:39:26","alt":"Hurricanes Gustav and Hannah","file":{"fid":"190033","name":"tdu47623.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/tdu47623_2.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/tdu47623_2.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":1589280,"path_740":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/images\/tdu47623_2.jpg?itok=s66M1QTq"}}},"media_ids":["41235"],"related_links":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.eas.gatech.edu\/people\/Hyemi_Kim\/","title":"Hye-Mi Kim"},{"url":"http:\/\/curry.eas.gatech.edu\/","title":"Judy Curry"},{"url":"http:\/\/webster.eas.gatech.edu\/","title":"Peter Webster"}],"groups":[{"id":"1183","name":"Home"}],"categories":[{"id":"154","name":"Environment"},{"id":"135","name":"Research"}],"keywords":[{"id":"85","name":"curry"},{"id":"82","name":"hurricanes"},{"id":"86","name":"nino"},{"id":"169418","name":"storms"},{"id":"84","name":"webster"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EGeorgia Tech Media Relations\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELaura Diamond\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:laura.diamond@comm.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Elaura.diamond@comm.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E404-894-6016\u003Cbr \/\u003EJason Maderer\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:maderer@gatech.edu\u0022\u003Emaderer@gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E404-660-2926\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":["david.terraso@comm.gatech.edu"],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}