{"350961":{"#nid":"350961","#data":{"type":"news","title":"Looking at El Nino\u2019s past to predict its future","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EThe El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation is Earth\u2019s main source of year-to-year climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EScientists see a large amount of variability in the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when looking back at climate records from thousands of years ago. Without a clear understanding of what caused past changes in ENSO variability, predicting the climate phenomenon\u2019s future is a difficult task. A new study shows how this climate system responds to various pressures, such as changes in carbon dioxide and ice cover, in one of the best models used to project future climate change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cAll of the natural climate fluctuations are in this model, and what we see is that the El Ni\u00f1o responds to every single one of these, significantly,\u201d said \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/shadow.eas.gatech.edu\/~kcobb\/\u0022\u003EKim Cobb\u003C\/a\u003E, an associate professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. The El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon controls how the climate changes in the tropics (and also influences weather patterns elsewhere, including the United States).\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe study was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy (DOE). The study was published November 27 in the journal \u003Cem\u003ENature. \u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn the study, researchers analyzed a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gases, orbital forcing, meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. This is farthest in the past that this model has been run continuously, which required supercomputers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research to be dedicated to the simulation for months.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESome key findings of the new simulations of El Ni\u00f1oover the past 21,000 years:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003EStrengthening ENSO over the current interglacial period, caused by increasing positive ocean-atmosphere feedbacks\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges during early deglaciation\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EIncreasing deglacial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations tend to weaken ENSO\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ERetreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cThe model gives some very clear predictions that are very much in line with some of the best understandings of the physics controlling the El Ni\u00f1o system,\u201d Cobb said. \u201cIt shows that this climate system in the model is sensitive to a variety of different natural climate changes that occurred over the last 21,000 years.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIn order to understand how El Ni\u00f1o responds to various climate forces, researchers test model predictions of past El Ni\u00f1o changes against actual records of past ENSO activity. Kim Cobb published several such records, including a large fossil coral dataset published in \u003Cem\u003EScience\u003C\/em\u003E last year.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cThe more we can close the loop between what this model says happened in the past and what the data say happened in the past, then we can project forward our improved understanding to understand future El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d Cobb said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThis research is supported by the National Science Foundation, under award number NSFC41130105, and the Department of Energy, under award number MOST2012CB955200. Any conclusions or opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the sponsoring agencies.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ECITATION\u003C\/strong\u003E: Zhengyu Liu, et al., \u201cEvolution and forcing mechanisms of El Ni\u00f1o over the past 21,000 years.\u201d (\u003Cem\u003ENature\u003C\/em\u003E, November 2014). \u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v515\/n7528\/full\/nature13963.html\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v515\/n7528\/full\/nature13963.html\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EResearch News\u003Cbr \/\u003E Georgia Institute of Technology\u003Cbr \/\u003E 177 North Avenue\u003Cbr \/\u003E Atlanta, Georgia\u0026nbsp; 30332-0181\u0026nbsp; USA\u003Cbr \/\u003E \u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/twitter.com\/GTResearchNews\u0022\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E@GTResearchNews\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EMedia Relations Contacts\u003C\/strong\u003E: Brett Israel (\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/twitter.com\/btiatl\u0022\u003E@btiatl\u003C\/a\u003E) (404-385-1933) (\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:brett.israel@comm.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Ebrett.israel@comm.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E) or John Toon (404-894-6986) (\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:jtoon@gatech.edu\u0022\u003Ejtoon@gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWriter\u003C\/strong\u003E: Brett Israel\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":"","field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"A new study shows how this climate system responds to various pressures, such as changes in carbon dioxide and ice cover, in one of the best models used to project future climate change."}],"uid":"27902","created_gmt":"2014-12-02 12:01:46","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 03:17:37","author":"Brett Israel","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2014-12-02T00:00:00-05:00","iso_date":"2014-12-02T00:00:00-05:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"350951":{"id":"350951","type":"image","title":"El nino peak warming","body":null,"created":"1449245702","gmt_created":"2015-12-04 16:15:02","changed":"1475895078","gmt_changed":"2016-10-08 02:51:18","alt":"El nino peak warming","file":{"fid":"201960","name":"1997_el_nino_topex.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/1997_el_nino_topex.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/1997_el_nino_topex.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":569546,"path_740":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/images\/1997_el_nino_topex.jpg?itok=vZ6W9a10"}}},"media_ids":["350951"],"groups":[{"id":"1188","name":"Research Horizons"}],"categories":[{"id":"154","name":"Environment"}],"keywords":[{"id":"831","name":"climate change"},{"id":"10994","name":"el nino"},{"id":"53861","name":"ENSO"},{"id":"791","name":"Global Warming"},{"id":"33791","name":"kim cobb"},{"id":"111321","name":"la nina"},{"id":"111311","name":"national center for atmospheric research"},{"id":"108061","name":"Oak Ridge National Laboratory"},{"id":"167325","name":"supercomputer"},{"id":"111301","name":"tropical pacific"}],"core_research_areas":[{"id":"39531","name":"Energy and Sustainable Infrastructure"}],"news_room_topics":[{"id":"71911","name":"Earth and Environment"}],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EBrett Israel\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E404-385-1933\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/btiatl\u0022\u003E@btiatl\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":["brett.israel@comm.gatech.edu"],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}