{"262651":{"#nid":"262651","#data":{"type":"news","title":"Scientists Anticipated Size and Location of 2012 Costa Rica Earthquake","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EScientists using GPS to study changes in the Earth\u2019s shape accurately forecasted the size and location of the magnitude 7.6 Nicoya earthquake that occurred in 2012 in Costa Rica.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica is one of the few places where land sits atop the portion of a subduction zone where the Earth\u2019s greatest earthquakes take place. Costa Rica\u2019s location therefore makes it the perfect spot for learning how large earthquakes rupture. Because earthquakes greater than about magnitude 7.5 have occurred in this region roughly every 50 years, with the previous event striking in 1950, scientists have been preparing for this earthquake through a number of geophysical studies. The most recent study used GPS to map out the area along the fault storing energy for release in a large earthquake.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cThis is the first place where we\u2019ve been able to map out the likely extent of an earthquake rupture along the subduction megathrust beforehand,\u201d said Andrew Newman, an associate professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe study was published online Dec. 22, 2013, in the journal\u0026nbsp;\u003Cem\u003ENature Geoscience\u003C\/em\u003E. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation and was a collaboration of researchers from Georgia Tech, the Costa Rica Volcanological and Seismological Observatory (OVSICORI) at Universidad Nacional, University California, Santa Cruz, the University of South Florida, Cal Poly Pomona, and JPL.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESubduction zones are locations where one tectonic plate is forced under another one. The collision of tectonic plates during this process can unleash devastating earthquakes, and sometimes devastating tsunamis. The magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the coast of Japan in 2011 was due to just such a subduction zone eaerthquake. The Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest is capable of unleashing a similarly sized quake. Damage from the Nicoya earthquake was not as bad as might be expected from a magnitude 7.6 quake.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cFortunately there was very little damage considering the earthquake\u2019s size,\u201d said Marino Protti of OVSICORI and the study\u2019s lead author. \u201cThe historical pattern of earthquakes not only allowed us to get our instruments ready, it also allowed Costa Ricans to upgrade their buildings to be earthquake safe.\u201d\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPlate tectonics are the driving force for subduction zones. As tectonic plates converge, strain temporarily accumulates across the plate boundary when portions of the interface between these tectonic plates, called a megathrust, become locked together. The strain can accumulate to dangerous levels before eventually being released as a massive earthquake.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0022The Nicoya Peninsula is an ideal natural lab for studying these events, because the coastline geometry uniquely allows us to get our equipment close to the zone of active strain accumulation,\u201d said Susan Schwartz, professor of earth sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a co-author of the study.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThrough a series of studies starting in the early 1990s using land-based tools, the researchers mapped regions where tectonic plates were completely locked along the subduction interface. Detailed geophysical observations of the region allowed the researchers to create an image of where the faults had locked.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe researchers published a study a few months before the earthquake, describing the particular locked patch with the clearest potential for the next large earthquake in the region. The team projected the total amount of energy that could have developed across that region and forecasted that if the locking remained similar since the last major earthquake in 1950, then there is presently enough energy for an earthquake on the order of magnitude 7.8 there.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBecause of limits in technology and scientific understanding about processes controlling fault locking and release, scientists cannot say much about precisely where or when earthquakes will occur. However, earthquakes in Nicoya have occurred about every 50 years, so seismologists had been anticipating another one around 2000, give or take 20 years, Newman said. The earthquake occurred in September of 2012 as a magnitude 7.6 quake.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cIt occurred right in the area we determined to be locked and it had almost the size we expected,\u201d Newman said.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe researchers hope to apply what they\u2019ve learned in Costa Rica to other environments. Virtually every damaging subduction zone earthquake occurs far offshore.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cNicoya is the only place on Earth where we\u2019ve actually been able to get a very accurate image of the locked patch because it occurs directly under land,\u201d Newman said. \u201cIf we really want to understand the seismic potential for most of the world, we have to go offshore.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EScientists have been able to reasonably map portions of these locked areas offshore using data on land, but the resolution is poor, particularly in the regions that are most responsible for generating tsunamis, Newman said. He hopes that his group\u2019s work in Nicoya will be a driver for geodetic studies on the seafloor to observe such Earth deformation. These seafloor geodetic studies are rare and expensive today.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cIf we want to understand the potential for large earthquakes, then we really need to start doing more seafloor observations,\u201d Newman said. \u201cIt\u2019s a growing push in our community and this study highlights the type of results that one might be able to obtain for most other dangerous environments, including offshore the Pacific Northwest.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThis research is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under award numbers 0847382, 1140261, 0948312 and 1262267. Any conclusions or opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the NSF.\u003C\/em\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EResearch News\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EGeorgia Institute of Technology\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E177 North Avenue\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAtlanta, Georgia 30332-0181 USA\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EStudy Contact:\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp;Andrew Newman (\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:anewman@gatech.edu\u0022\u003Eanewman@gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EMedia Relations Contacts:\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp;Brett Israel (404-385-1933) (\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:brett.israel@comm.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Ebrett.israel@comm.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E) or John Toon (404-894-6986) (\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:jtoon@gatech.edu\u0022\u003Ejtoon@gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWriter:\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp;Brett Israel\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EScientists using GPS to study changes in the Earth\u2019s shape accurately forecasted the size and location of the magnitude 7.6 Nicoya earthquake that occurred in 2012 in Costa Rica.\u0026nbsp;The Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica is one of the few places where land sits atop the portion of a subduction zone where the Earth\u2019s greatest earthquakes take place.\u003C\/p\u003E\u0026nbsp;","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Scientists using GPS to study changes in the Earth\u2019s shape accurately forecasted the size and location of the magnitude 7.6 Nicoya earthquake that occurred in 2012 in Costa Rica."}],"uid":"27902","created_gmt":"2013-12-23 12:01:21","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 03:15:36","author":"Brett Israel","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2013-12-23T00:00:00-05:00","iso_date":"2013-12-23T00:00:00-05:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"262641":{"id":"262641","type":"image","title":"Andrew Newman Doing Field Work in Costa Rica in 2010","body":null,"created":"1449243999","gmt_created":"2015-12-04 15:46:39","changed":"1475894948","gmt_changed":"2016-10-08 02:49:08","alt":"Andrew Newman Doing Field Work in Costa Rica in 2010","file":{"fid":"198429","name":"newman_costa_rica_2010.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/newman_costa_rica_2010_0.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/newman_costa_rica_2010_0.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":170253,"path_740":"http:\/\/hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/images\/newman_costa_rica_2010_0.jpg?itok=7BfTlxzK"}}},"media_ids":["262641"],"groups":[{"id":"1188","name":"Research Horizons"}],"categories":[{"id":"154","name":"Environment"}],"keywords":[{"id":"12237","name":"Andrew Newman"},{"id":"5770","name":"Earthquake"},{"id":"82601","name":"fault"},{"id":"82591","name":"megathrust"},{"id":"82581","name":"nicoya"},{"id":"169618","name":"subduction zone"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[{"id":"71911","name":"Earth and Environment"}],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EBrett Israel\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E404-385-1933\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:brett.israel@comm.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Ebrett.israel@comm.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":["brett.israel@comm.gatech.edu"],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}