Title:  Reliability Analysis Methods For Power Systems With Substantial Penetration Of Renewable Generating Resources

Committee: 

Dr. Meliopoulos, Advisor        

Dr. Saeedifard, Chair

Dr. Gebraeel

Abstract:

The objective of this proposal is develop reliability assessment models when adding a wind farm (WF)/solar farm (SF), consisting of number of WTSs/SCGs, to a power system. These models involve finding WF/SF power output probability. Three different methods for computing the generated power probability distribution function (pdf) of a WF or a SF are proposed: (1) analytical method, (2) non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation, and (3) sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Historical wind speed/solar radiation data is utilized to perform the study. Further, force outage rates (FORs) of components are incorporated in the process of computing the WF/SF generated power pdf. All methods yield comparable results. The usefulness of the computed pdf is demonstrated by integrating them into a probabilistic production costing (PPC) model for assessing the reliability of a system comprising one or more WFs/SFs. Finally, a further development of these models includes a unit commitment economic dispatch model (UCED) to simulate real operation of power systems, specifically CG constraints in presence of VG at different penetration levels.  Also, the UCED will be used to solve for optimal energy storage system (ESS) sizing and its expected charging and discharging power profile. This profile determines the expected ESS effect on reliability.